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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2018 Oct 1.
Published in final edited form as: Adv Water Resour. 2016 Nov 27;108:367–376. doi: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2016.11.013

Table 2.

Optimal parameter set of the full model. Parameters are given by thana group (inner city core and outer periphery) for the baseline probability transition matrix P, the mobility effect fmob and the ENSO effect fENSO. Parameters γin(γout) modulate the effect of incoming(outgoing) human mobility fluxes on the increased risk of cholera, ν regulates the overall effect of fmob, and M, k and A correspond to the scale, phase and amplitude parameters of the ENSO functional form. The parameters of the seasonality forcing fseas are not shown.

Base probability
Mobility
ENSO
P.0 P.1 P.2 γin γout ν M k A
Inner P0. 0.582 0.17 0.201
P1. 0.370 0.341 0.289 330.7 13.9 0.032 2.568 2.581 0.534
P2. 0.305 0.292 0.403
Outer P0. 0.761 0.188 0.0505
P1. 0.498 0.398 0.104 6.46 6.39 0.227 2.432 2.507 0.678
P2. 0.475 0.275 0.251