Table 4.
Two-year Functional Deterioration, Institutionalization and Death Predictive Indices and Associated Risk Groups*.
| Functional deterioration | Institutionalization | Death | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictor | Point | Score | Point | Score | Point | Score |
| Baseline characteristics | ||||||
| Age | ||||||
| 65–74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| 75–84 | 4 | 11 | 7 | |||
| ≥85 | 7 | 18 | 14 | |||
| Gender | ||||||
| Male | −2 | −3 | 5 | |||
| Female | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Race | ||||||
| Non-Hispanic white | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Non-Hispanic black | 0 | 9 | 4 | |||
| Hispanic | 0 | 13 | 4 | |||
| Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Education | ||||||
| ≥High school diploma | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Below high school diploma | 2 | 0 | 2 | |||
| Living arrangement | ||||||
| With spouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| With children | 2 | 0 | 3 | |||
| With others | 0 | 6 | 0 | |||
| Alone | 1 | 6 | 2 | |||
| Retirement community | 0 | 12 | 3 | |||
| Dual eligibility | ||||||
| Medicare only | −2 | −6 | −2 | |||
| Medicare plus Medicaid | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Proxy interviewed | ||||||
| Beneficiary | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Proxy | 4 | 0 | 4 | |||
| Health conditions | ||||||
| Alzheimer’s disease/dementia | 7 | 16 | 9 | |||
| Angina pectoris/coronary artery disease | 1 | −5 | 0 | |||
| Complete/partial paralysis | 0 | 5 | 0 | |||
| Diabetes/high blood sugar | 3 | 4 | 3 | |||
| Emphysema/asthma/Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease | 2 | 0 | 5 | |||
| Mental/psychiatric disorder | 2 | 4 | 0 | |||
| Myocardial infarction/heart attack | 0 | 0 | 2 | |||
| Parkinson’s disease | 7 | 0 | 5 | |||
| Stroke/brain hemorrhage | 2 | 0 | 2 | |||
| Impairments | ||||||
| Severe hearing impairment/deaf | 2 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Severe vision impairment/no usable vision | 3 | 0 | 3 | |||
| Function | ||||||
| Activity of daily living stage | ||||||
| 0 | 0 | −4 | −5 | |||
| I | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| II | −2 | 3 | 4 | |||
| III | −12 | 3 | 3 | |||
| IV | 0 | 0 | 8 | |||
| Identify predicted probability based on the sum score: | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Functional deterioration | Institutionalization | Death | |||
| Sum Scores | Predicted probability (%) | Sum Scores | Predicted probability (%) | Sum Scores | Predicted probability (%) |
| ≤ −1 | 6.78 | ≤ 4 | 0.14 | ≤ 3 | 1.91 |
| 0 – 2 | 12.89 | 5 – 13 | 0.44 | 4 – 9 | 4.67 |
| 3 – 5 | 18.39 | 14 – 21 | 2.23 | 10 – 15 | 9.78 |
| ≥ 6 | 28.50 | ≥ 22 | 11.41 | ≥16 | 30.36 |
*
Instructions
1
The 2-year functional deterioration, institutionalization, and death predictions involve 3 different scoring systems.
2
Score the person according to the presence of each predictor. Enter the associated points in its score box.
3
Add the points associated with each predictor to obtain a sum score for the relevant scoring system.
4
In the sum score box, circle the range of the sum score to determine the person’s risk group and the average likelihood of functional deterioration, institutionalization, and death.