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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2017 Oct 27.
Published in final edited form as: Lancet Public Health. 2017 Jul;2(7):e323–e330. doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(17)30119-6

Figure 1.

Figure 1

Estimated versus Actual TB Incidence in US-born, Foreign-born, and Total NYC Population under Five Scenarios

Mean model estimates (points) of TB incidence with 95% credible intervals (ribbon) shown in purple, case notification rates (points) shown in green. Triangles denote the foreign-born, squares denote the US-born, and circles denote the total population. *Bayes Factors are with respect the Differential Progression scenario. A Bayes factor is the ratio of the overall likelihood of one scenario versus another – the greater the ratio, the more the data (TB incidence in 2010 and 2015) support one scenario over the other. A Bayes factor of 1/10 or less indicates strong evidence in favor of the Differential Progression scenario.18