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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2017 Oct 27.
Published in final edited form as: Lancet Public Health. 2017 Jul;2(7):e323–e330. doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(17)30119-6

Figure 3.

Figure 3

Projected Annual Change in TB Incidence in Simulations with the Highest vs Lowest Quintiles of Selected Model Parameters

The relationship of projected yearly change in incidence to an individual model parameter is shown if the projections of yearly decline in TB incidence from 2015 to 2025 based on the highest quintile of the parameter (the highest 20% of sampled values for the parameter) differed by more than 0.3% per year in absolute terms from projections based on the lowest quintile of the parameter, in the (a) Differential Progression scenario or (b) Reduced Importation scenario. Vertical dark lines denote mean estimated yearly decline in TB incidence, shaded boxes denote interquartile range, error bars denote 95% credible interval. *The “Factor by which LTBI prevalence among immigrants varies” is a parameter that allows the LTBI prevalence among immigrants to vary up or down from estimates generated by prevalence surveys13 (a value of 1.0 represents no change from the baseline estimate).