Table 3.
Concentration of risk and positive predictive value of observed PTSD among the 5% of respondents assessed for PTSD after randomly selected unexpected death of a loved one with highest predicted risk of PTSD in the total sample and stratified by subgroups
| Simulated samplea (n = 56,260)
|
Observed sampleb (n = 2,813)
|
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration of risk
|
Positive Predictive Value
|
Concentration of risk
|
Positive Predictive Value
|
|||||
| % PTSD | (SE) | % PTSD | (SE) | % PTSD | (SE) | % PTSD | (SE) | |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
| I. Total | 30.6 | (6.2) | 25.3 | (5.3) | 53.7 | (6.5) | 37.2 | (5.9) |
| II. Country income | ||||||||
| High | 26.7 | (4.3) | 18.2 | (3.2) | 50.5 | (7.8) | 37.7 | (7.6) |
| Low or middle | 34.6 | (11.4) | 36.6 | (11.1) | 57.0 | (10.3) | 36.8 | (8.9) |
| III. Age | ||||||||
| 30+ years old | 35.7 | (6.5) | 22.0 | (3.2) | 61.1 | (8.2) | 35.5 | (6.1) |
| < 30 years old | 25.0 | (12.0) | 32.8 | (14.8) | 45.6 | (10.6) | 40.0 | (10.7) |
| IV. Gender | ||||||||
| Male | 14.7 | (4.0) | 22.6 | (9.7) | 48.2 | (15.0) | 42.5 | (15.2) |
| Female | 35.2 | (7.6) | 25.6 | (5.8) | 55.3 | (7.2) | 36.1 | (6.1) |
| V. Education | ||||||||
| Low or low-average | 24.6 | (5.4) | 22.9 | (5.6) | 45.0 | (9.2) | 27.5 | (7.1) |
| High or high-average | 36.8 | (10.7) | 27.2 | (8.3) | 62.7 | (8.3) | 50.5 | (8.6) |
a
Estimates calculated from 20 replicates of 10-fold cross-validation of the final model.
b
Estimates calculated from the final model.