Table 2.

ERGM Results

	2002					2005	2009	2013

	Model1	Model2	Model3	Model4	Model5	Model5	Model5	Model5
Network structure
Edge	-1.51 (0.08) ^***	-1.58 (0.08) ^***	-3.4 (0.19) ^***	-3.34 (0.19) ^***	-2.75 (0.28) ^***	-2.8 (0.27) ^***	-2.65 (0.3) ^***	-2.81 (0.33) ^***
Reciprocity	0.24 (0.18)	-0.46 (0.2) ^*	0.00 (0.29)	0.03 (0.29)	0.00 (0.3)	0.26 (0.31)	-0.06 (0.35)	-0.73 (0.35) ^*
Geometrical weighted in-degree (popularity spread)	-11.51 (0.53) ^***	-10.66 (0.55) ^***	-4 (0.44) ^***	-3.96 (0.45) ^***	-3.88 (0.46) ^***	-4.26 (0.47) ^***	-3.64 (0.46) ^***	-4.20 (0.53) ^***
Receiver effects (“Work” community effects)
Violent crime rate	4.67 (0.87) ^***	1.62 (1.06)	-8.39 (1.83) ^***	-5.54 (1.98) ^**	-7.07 (2.05) ^***	-13.07 (2.46) ^***	-10.88 (3.18) ^***	-14.11 (4.63) ^**
Residential stability			-0.65 (0.08) ^***	-0.65 (0.07) ^***	-0.82 (0.11) ^***	-0.83 (0.11) ^***	-0.63 (0.11) ^***	-0.8 (0.12) ^***
Racial and ethnic diversity			-0.32 (0.07) ^***	-0.34 (0.07) ^***	-0.39 (0.07) ^***	-0.48 (0.07) ^***	-0.37 (0.08) ^***	-0.34 (0.08) ^***
Density of local jobs			3.33 (0.15) ^***	3.38 (0.16) ^***	3.7 (0.33) ^***	3.4 (0.31) ^***	3.72 (0.35) ^***	3.52 (0.41) ^***
Sender effects (“Home” community effects)
Violent crime rate	-4.75 (1.38) ^***	-8.12 (1.44) ^***	-7.61 (2.40) ^**	-5.67 (2.56) ^*	-7.11 (2.67) ^**	-3.9 (2.85)	-8.74 (3.39) ^**	-18.21 (4.87) ^***
Residential stability			0.38 (0.09) ^***	0.37 (0.09) ^***	0.54 (0.11) ^***	0.66 (0.12) ^***	0.48 (0.12) ^***	0.16 (0.13)
Racial and ethnic diversity			0.37 (0.09) ^***	0.36 (0.09) ^***	0.33 (0.1) ^***	0.35 (0.09) ^***	0.18 (0.09) ^†	0.2 (0.09) ^*
Density of local jobs			-0.07 (0.06)	-0.06 (0.06)	0.34 (0.32)	0.5 (0.31)	0.61 (0.36) ^†	0.94 (0.42) ^*
Relational effects
Spatial proximity	1.99 (0.14) ^***	1.12 (0.17) ^***	2.37 (0.22) ^***	2.33 (0.21) ^***	2.24 (0.22) ^***	2.09 (0.22) ^***	1.49 (0.25) ^***	2.3 (0.26) ^***
Transportation		0.36 (0.03) ^***	0.42 (0.04) ^***	0.39 (0.04) ^***	0.38 (0.04) ^***	0.36 (0.04) ^***	0.36 (0.04) ^***	0.35 (0.05) ^***
Dissimilarity
Violent crime rate	-10.06 (1.65) ^***	-6.67 (1.82) ^***		-8.45 (2.61) ^**	-6.63 (2.79) ^*	-6.71 (2.94) ^*	-7.68 (3.8) ^*	-6.4 (5.45)
Residential stability					-0.34 (0.12) ^**	-0.24 (0.13) ^†	-0.18 (0.13)	-0.04 (0.14)
Racial and ethnic diversity					-0.25 (0.09) ^**	-0.13 (0.09)	-0.26 (0.1) ^**	-0.25 (0.11) ^*
Density of local jobs					-0.42 (0.33)	-0.47 (0.31)	-0.52 (0.35)	-0.88 (0.42) ^*
AIC	3213	3014	1782	1773	1760	1786	1576	1486
BIC	3260	3067	1869	1867	1874	1900	1689	1600

Notes: Main cells represent ERGM estimates. Standard errors in parentheses. N = 77 nodes (community areas).

^***

p < .001,

^**

p < .01,

p < .05,

^†

p <.10