Table 3.

TERGM models – violent crime rate

Formation Models	Model 1a	Model 2a	Model 3a	Model 4a	Model 5a
Network structure
Edge	-3.83 (0.09) ^***	-3.82 (0.09) ^***	-4.63 (0.14) ^***	-4.6 (0.14) ^***	-4.15 (0.18) ^***
Reciprocity	0.17 (0.13)	-0.12 (0.13)	0.11 (0.16)	0.1 (0.17)	0.07 (0.17)
Geometrical weighted in-degree (popularity spread)	-5.21 (0.28) ^***	-5.13 (0.3) ^***	-4.07 (0.25) ^***	-4.12 (0.28) ^***	-4.09 (0.29) ^***
Receiver effects (“Work” community effects)
Violent crime rate	9.57 (1.53) ^***	6.89 (1.64) ^***	1.77 (1.53)	4.29 (1.79) ^*	3.36 (1.84) ^†
Residential stability			-0.7 (0.06) ^***	-0.7 (0.05) ^***	-0.84 (0.07) ^***
Racial and ethnic diversity			-0.28 (0.05) ^***	-0.29 (0.05) ^***	-0.3 (0.06) ^***
Density of local jobs			1.1 (0.1) ^***	1.1 (0.1) ^***	1.32 (0.19) ^***
Sender effects (“Home” community effects)
Violent crime rate	-1.17 (1.62)	-3.26 (1.7) ^†	-3.17 (1.91) ^†	0.78 (2.16)	-0.75 (2.11)
Residential stability			0.33 (0.06) ^***	0.31 (0.06) ^***	0.47 (0.08) ^***
Racial and ethnic diversity			0.25 (0.06) ^***	0.24 (0.06) ^***	0.19 (0.06) ^**
Density of local jobs			0.06 (0.03) ^†	0.07 (0.03) ^†	0.41 (0.2) ^*
Relational effects
Spatial proximity	2.21 (0.11) ^***	1.62 (0.14) ^***	2.05 (0.15) ^***	2.01 (0.16) ^***	1.97 (0.15) ^***
Transportation		0.19 (0.03) ^***	0.21 (0.03) ^***	0.19 (0.03) ^***	0.17 (0.03) ^***
Dissimilarity
Violent crime rate	-9.73 (2.05) ^***	-7.6 (2.09) ^***		-9.41 (2.14) ^***	-7.76 (2.21) ^***
Residential stability					-0.29 (0.08) ^***
Racial and ethnic diversity					-0.15 (0.06) ^*
Density of local jobs					-0.33 (0.2)
AIC	-740963	-741016	-741366	-741392	-741406
BIC	-740901	-740945	-741250	-741268	-741255

Dissolution Models	Model 1b	Model 2b	Model 3b	Model 4b	Model 5b

Network structure
Edge	1.76 (0.11) ^***	1.71 (0.11) ^***	0.93 (0.16) ^***	0.92 (0.15) ^***	1.17 (0.2) ^***
Reciprocity	0.33 (0.14) ^*	0.03 (0.14)	0.02 (0.17)	0.03 (0.17)	0 (0.18)
Geometrical weighted in-degree (popularity spread)	-2.45 (0.21) ^***	-2.29 (0.21) ^***	-1.5 (0.22) ^***	-1.51 (0.22) ^***	-1.55 (0.23) ^***
Receiver effects (“Work” community effects)
Violent crime rate	11.72 (2.06) ^***	9.94 (2.09) ^***	-6.14 (2.32) ^**	-6.44 (2.32) ^**	-7.49 (2.48) ^**
Residential stability			-0.31 (0.07) ^***	-0.31 (0.07) ^***	-0.31 (0.08) ^***
Racial and ethnic diversity			-0.15 (0.06) ^*	-0.15 (0.06) ^*	-0.19 (0.06) ^**
Density of local jobs			1.36 (0.12) ^***	1.36 (0.13) ^***	1.26 (0.2) ^***
Sender effects (“Home” community effects)
Violent crime rate	-7.25 (1.56) ^***	-9.18 (1.64) ^***	-6.32 (1.8) ^***	-7.12 (2.03) ^***	-7.39 (2.04) ^***
Residential stability			0.01 (0.07)	0.01 (0.07)	-0.05 (0.09)
Racial and ethnic diversity			0.1 (0.06) ^†	0.11 (0.06) ^†	0.14 (0.06) ^*
Density of local jobs			-0.01 (0.04)	-0.01 (0.04)	-0.11 (0.17)
Relational effects
Spatial proximity	0.23 (0.12) ^†	-0.14 (0.14)	0.66 (0.14) ^***	0.67 (0.14) ^***	0.66 (0.15) ^***
Transportation		0.13 (0.02) ^***	0.13 (0.03) ^***	0.13 (0.03) ^***	0.12 (0.03) ^***
Dissimilarity
Violent crime rate	3.27 (2.28)	4.73 (2.25) ^*		2.24 (2.49)	3.67 (2.47)
Residential stability					0.04 (0.09)
Racial and ethnic diversity					-0.24 (0.08) ^**
Density of local jobs					0.09 (0.18)
AIC	3911	3869	3504	3505	3501
BIC	3957	3922	3590	3598	3614

Notes: Main cells represent ERGM estimates. Standard errors in parentheses. N = 77 nodes (community areas).

^***

p < .001,

^**

p < .01,

p < .05,

^†

p <.10