Table A1.
TERGM - Backbone (0.05) by different crime types
| Formation Models | Model 1a - Violent crimes | Model 2a – Homicides | Model 3a - Robbery | Model 4a - Robbery and aggravated assault | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Network structure | |||||
| Edge | -4.08 (0.15) *** | -3.88 (0.12) *** | -3.8 (0.14) *** | -3.77 (0.16) *** | |
| Reciprocity | 0.64 (0.12) *** | 0.61 (0.12) *** | 0.6 (0.12) *** | 0.56 (0.13) *** | |
| Geometrical weighted in-degree (popularity spread) | -1.34 (0.27) *** | -1.3 (0.25) *** | -1.28 (0.27) *** | -1.29 (0.28) *** | |
| Receiver effects (“Work” community effects) | |||||
| Violent Crime Rate | 2.59 (1.62) | -0.07 (0.23) | 0.02 (0.01) † | 0.13 (0.09) | |
| Residential stability | -0.29 (0.05) *** | -0.28 (0.05) *** | -0.28 (0.05) *** | -0.3 (0.05) *** | |
| Racial and ethnic diversity | -0.12 (0.05) * | -0.12 (0.05) * | -0.11 (0.05) * | -0.15 (0.06) ** | |
| Density of local jobs | 0.24 (0.22) | 0.12 (0.2) | 0.17 (0.21) | 0.2 (0.22) | |
| Sender effects (“Home” community effects) | |||||
| Violent Crime Rate | 5.55 (1.69) *** | 0.23 (0.24) | 0 (0.01) | 0.06 (0.09) | |
| Residential stability | 0.74 (0.06) *** | 0.71 (0.06) *** | 0.7 (0.06) *** | 0.67 (0.06) *** | |
| Racial and ethnic diversity | 0.37 (0.06) *** | 0.32 (0.06) *** | 0.27 (0.06) *** | 0.29 (0.06) *** | |
| Density of local jobs | -0.34 (0.23) | -0.48 (0.2) * | -0.46 (0.23) * | -0.39 (0.23) † | |
| Relational effects | |||||
| Spatial proximity | 1.38 (0.13) *** | 1.45 (0.12) *** | 1.4 (0.13) *** | 1.35 (0.14) *** | |
| Transportation | 0.21 (0.02) *** | 0.22 (0.02) *** | 0.21 (0.02) *** | 0.21 (0.02) *** | |
| Dissimilarity | |||||
| Violent Crime Rate | -11.03 (1.97) *** | -0.31 (0.25) | -0.07 (0.01) *** | -0.59 (0.11) *** | |
| Residential stability | -0.3 (0.06) *** | -0.31 (0.06) *** | -0.32 (0.07) *** | -0.32 (0.07) *** | |
| Racial and ethnic diversity | -0.53 (0.06) *** | -0.65 (0.06) *** | -0.58 (0.06) *** | -0.56 (0.06) *** | |
| Density of local jobs | 0.3 (0.24) | 0.44 (0.21) * | 0.45 (0.23) † | 0.35 (0.24) | |
| AIC | -738824 | -738776 | -738800 | -590892 | |
| BIC | -738673 | -738625 | -738649 | -590743 | |
|
| |||||
| Dissolution Models | Model 1b - Violent crimes | Model 2b - Homicides | Model 3b - Robbery | Model 4b - Robbery and aggravated assault | |
|
| |||||
| Network structure | |||||
| Edge | 0.56 (0.19) ** | 0.28 (0.16) . | 0.56 (0.18) ** | 0.57 (0.19) ** | |
| Reciprocity | 0.67 (0.13) *** | 0.68 (0.14) *** | 0.6 (0.14) *** | 0.6 (0.15) *** | |
| Geometrical weighted in-degree (popularity spread) | -0.91 (0.19) *** | -0.89 (0.2) *** | -0.83 (0.2) *** | -0.74 (0.21) *** | |
| Receiver effects (“Work” community effects) | |||||
| Violent Crime Rate | -3.31 (2.1) | -0.53 (0.32) † | -0.03 (0.02) * | -0.24 (0.11) * | |
| Residential stability | -0.22 (0.07) ** | -0.23 (0.07) *** | -0.27 (0.07)*** | -0.2 (0.07) ** | |
| Racial and ethnic diversity | -0.12 (0.06) † | -0.1 (0.06) | -0.13 (0.06) * | -0.1 (0.07) | |
| Density of local jobs | 2.37 (0.25) *** | 2.42 (0.26) *** | 2.39 (0.25) *** | 2.32 (0.25) *** | |
| Sender effects (“Home” community effects) | |||||
| Violent Crime Rate | -10.7 (2.13) *** | -0.71 (0.29) * | -0.08 (0.01) *** | -0.62 (0.11) *** | |
| Residential stability | 0.14 (0.07) * | 0.2 (0.07) ** | 0.18 (0.07) * | 0.16 (0.07) * | |
| Racial and ethnic diversity | 0.12 (0.07) † | 0.2 (0.06) ** | 0.11 (0.06) † | 0.11 (0.07) † | |
| Density of local jobs | -0.17 (0.23) | -0.13 (0.23) | -0.16 (0.23) | -0.28 (0.23) | |
| Relational effects | |||||
| Spatial proximity | 1.26 (0.12) *** | 1.25 (0.12) *** | 1.26 (0.12) *** | 1.21 (0.13) *** | |
| Transportation | 0.02 (0.02) | 0 (0.02) | 0.03 (0.02) | 0.04 (0.03) | |
| Dissimilarity | |||||
| Violent Crime Rate | 1.84 (2.57) | -0.84 (0.35) * | 0 (0.02) | 0.05 (0.14) | |
| Residential stability | -0.12 (0.08) | -0.13 (0.08) † | -0.13 (0.08) | -0.12 (0.08) | |
| Racial and ethnic diversity | -0.12 (0.08) | -0.06 (0.08) | -0.13 (0.08) | -0.17 (0.09) † | |
| Density of local jobs | 0.17 (0.24) | 0.11 (0.25) | 0.19 (0.25) | 0.3 (0.24) | |
| AIC | 3479 | 3488 | 3460 | 3167 | |
| BIC | 3591 | 3599 | 3572 | 3276 | |
Notes: Main cells represent ERGM estimates. Standard errors in parentheses. N = 77 nodes (community areas).
p < .001,
p < .01,
p < .05,
p <.10