Table 1. Disease-related parameters—Estimated values and ranges used in sensitivity analysis.
Parameter | Value | Range | Source/Comments |
---|---|---|---|
Transmission constant (T) | 5.1 | Calibrated to match incidence rates of first infection at 6, 12, 24, 36 months as reported by Gladstone[28] | |
Efficacy of kth (k = 1, 2, 3) natural infection against any future infection (γk) | 0.39, 0.52, 0.67 | Low: 0.29, 0.43, 0.59 High: 0.47, 0.59, 0.74 | [28] |
Decreased infectiousness of second infection | 0.5 | 0.3, 0.7 | [29, 30] |
Decreased infectiousness of third, fourth infection | 0.2 | 0, 0.4 | [29, 30] |
Mean duration of infection (days) | 7 | 4, 10 | [25, 31] |
Probability that kth (k = 1, 2, 3, 4) infection will cause symptoms given no vaccination (αk) | 0.413, 0.349, 0.235, 0.201 | ± 50% | [28] |
Probability that symptoms of kth (k = 1, 2, 3, 4) infection will be severe[34]* if present (βk) | 0.153, 0.221, 0.233, 0.167 | ± 50% | [28] |
Probability of dying from severe* rotavirus given no formal treatment | 0.061 | 0.0305, 0.1220 | Calibrated to match 5-year Indian rotavirus mortality of 1/242 without vaccination[32] |
Waning of protection of maternal antibodies | Protection declines linearly from 100% to 0% between birth and 13 weeks of age | [33] |
* Severe infections are defined as those with a Vesikari score > = 11.