Table 3.
Factors associated with an acute pulmonary exacerbation during follow-up
| A. Derivation cohort | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥1 Acute pulmonary exacerbation at 1-year of follow-up | ||||
| Univariate | Multivariatea | |||
| OR (95% CI) | p-value | OR (95% CI) | p-value | |
| Age, year | 0.97 (0.92–1.03) | 0.32 | ||
| White race | 2.13 (0.13–35.5) | 0.60 | ||
| Male sex | 0.54 (0.20–1.49) | 0.54 | 0.40 (0.12–1.28) | 0.12 |
| BMI, kg/m2 | 0.97 (0.79––1.16) | 0.65 | 1.09 (0.87–1.37) | 0.45 |
| Positive Pseudomonas status | 1.01 (0.38–2.72) | 0.98 | 1.28 (0.42–3.88) | 0.66 |
| Sweat chloride, mmol/L | 1.04 (1.003–1.08) | 0.033 | ||
| PA:A>1 | 3.64 (1.28–10.4) | 0.015 | 3.49 (1.18–10.3) | 0.023 |
| FEV1% predicted | 0.96 (0.92–0.99) | 0.021 | 0.96 (0.92–0.99) | 0.032 |
| FVC% predicted | 0.98 (0.94–1.02) | 0.27 | ||
| FEV1/FVC | 0.01 (0.00–1.92) | 0.09 | ||
| Inhaled antibiotic use | 1.42 (0.49–4.10) | 0.51 | ||
| DNAse use | 2.40 (0.82–7.06) | 0.11 | ||
| B. Validation cohort (1-year follow-up) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥1 Acute pulmonary exacerbation at 1-year of follow-up | ||||
| Univariate | Multivariateb | |||
| OR (95% CI) | p-value | OR (95% CI) | p-value | |
| Age, year | 1.01 (0.98–1.04) | 0.45 | ||
| Male sex | 0.94 (0.53–1.68) | 0.94 | 0.76 (0.32–1.83) | 0.54 |
| BMI, kg/m2 | 0.99 (0.91–1.08) | 0.99 | 1.02 (0.90–1.15) | 0.74 |
| Positive Pseudomonas status | 2.29 (0.96–5.46) | 0.06 | 1.96 (0.58–6.66) | 0.28 |
| Sweat chloride, mmol/L | 1.01 (0.98–1.05) | 0.39 | ||
| PA:A>1 | 2.05 (1.13–3.72) | 0.02 | 1.43 (0.63–3.29) | 0.40 |
| FEV1% predicted | 0.99 (0.98–1.01) | 0.22 | ||
| FEV1/FVC | 0.15 (0.02–0.91) | 0.04 | 0.35 (0.02–6.65) | 0.48 |
| Exacerbation in the previous year | 30.4 (13.4–68.7) | <0.001 | 21.0 (9.07–48.9) | <0.001 |
| C. Validation cohort (2-year follow-up) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥1 Acute pulmonary exacerbation at 2-years of follow-up | ||||
| Univariate | Multivariatec | |||
| OR (95% CI) | p-value | OR (95% CI) | p-value | |
| Age, year | 1.01 (0.98–1.05) | 0.40 | ||
| Male sex | 1.37 (0.73–2.55) | 0.33 | 1.15 (0.49–2.73) | 0.75 |
| BMI, kg/m2 | 0.97 (0.86–1.07) | 0.57 | 1.00 (0.89–1.13) | 0.96 |
| Positive Pseudomonas status | 2.69 (1.13–6.42) | 0.03 | 2.42 (0.77–7.60) | 0.13 |
| Sweat chloride, mmol/L | 1.02 (0.98–1.05) | 0.33 | ||
| PA:A>1 | 3.12 (1.59–6.1) | 0.001 | 2.41 (1.06–5.52) | 0.037 |
| FEV1% predicted | 0.99 (0.98–1.01) | 0.30 | ||
| FEV1/FVC | 0.07 (0.01–0.57) | 0.02 | 0.15 (0.07–3.24) | 0.23 |
| Exacerbation in the previous year | 13.9 (6.56–29.6) | <0.001 | 8.21 (3.66–18.4) | <0.001 |
Multivariate logistic regression model includes: sex, BMI, FEV1% predicted, PA:A>1 (R2=0.20, P=0.003).
Multivariate logistic regression model includes: sex, BMI, positive Pseudomonas status, FEV1/FVC, PA:A>1, exacerbation in the year prior to index CT scan (R2=0.32, P<0.001).
Multivariate logistic regression model includes: sex, BMI, positive Pseudomonas status, FEV1/FVC, PA:A>1, exacerbation in the year prior to index CT scan (R2=0.19, P<0.001).
Abbreviations: FEV1 = forced expiratory volume in 1 second, FVC = forced vital capacity, PA = pulmonary artery diameter, A = ascending aortic diameter. Positive Pseudomonas status indicates a history of either an acute infection or chronic colonization with Pseudomonas.