. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2017 Nov 6.

Published in final edited form as: Soc Sci Hist. 2016 Winter;40(4):707–470. doi: 10.1017/ssh.2016.28

Table 3.

OLS Models of County Outmigration – Crop Failure Models

		Crop failure	Crop failure with ecodivisions	Crop failure with ecodivisions (robust)

DIAGNOSTICS	R squared	0.8431	0.8613	0.9185

	Adj. R squared	0.8427	0.8605	0.9180

	F statistic	2056 on 8 and 3062 DF	1115 on 17 and 3053 DF

	Shapiro test W value	0.8166	0.7868	0.7756

	Breusch-Pagan p value	0.0273	0.0006	0.0006

	VIF values >3		ecodiv	log of pop, ecodiv, crop failure

	Moran’s I (if significant)	0.3385	0.2874

INDEPENDENT VARIABLES		Odds (sig.)	Odds (sig.)	Odds (sig.)

	Population	2.3009 ^***	2.4190 ^***	2.3741 ^***

	Crop failure (ref=0%)
	Crop failure 1-5%	1.1245 ^***	1.0970 ^***	1.0808 ^***
	Crop failure 5-25%	1.3765 ^***	1.1976 ^***	1.1822 ^***
	Crop failure >25%	1.5937 ^***	1.2571 ^***	1.2270 ^***

	% change in 1934 average daily max temperature from 20 year normal

	% change in 1934 total precipitation from 20 year normal

	% of population in retail employment, 1930	1.1076 ^***	1.0498 ^***	1.0647 ^***

	% of population in manufacturing employment, 1930	0.9816 ^***	0.9860 ^***	0.9820 ^***

	Weighted % change in 3 top crops production, 1930-1940

	Est. % of working age (15-64) population unemployed, 1937	1.0033	1.0067^**	1.0080 ^***

	County is urban	0.9390 ^․	0.9292 ^*	0.9665

	Ecodivisions (ref= warm continental)
	Hot continental		1.0589 ^․	1.0788 ^***
	Subtropical		1.1413 ^***	1.2341 ^***
	Prairie		1.3862 ^***	1.3810 ^***
	Temperate steppe		1.5525 ^***	1.5249 ^***
	Subtropical & tropical steppe		1.7413 ^***	1.7568 ^***
	Subtropical & tropical desert		1.5797 ^***	1.6033 ^***
	Temperate desert		1.4833 ^***	1.4369 ^***
	Mediterranean		1.8149 ^***	1.7567 ^***
	Marine		1.8791 ^***	1.8730 ^***

Significance codes:

^***

^**

0.001

0.01

^․

0.05