. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2017 Nov 6.

Published in final edited form as: Soc Sci Hist. 2016 Winter;40(4):707–470. doi: 10.1017/ssh.2016.28

Table 4.

OLS Models of County Outmigration – Climate Models

		Climate failure	Climate with ecodivisions	Climate with ecodivisions (robust)

DIAGNOSTICS	R squared	0.8458	0.8655	0.9210

	Adj. R squared	0.8454	0.8647	0.9206

	F statistic	2100 on 8 and 3062 DF	1155 on 17 and 3053 DF

	Shapiro test W value	0.8213	0.7852	0.7728

	Breusch-Pagan p value	<0.0001	<0.0001	<0.0001

	VIF values >3		ecodiv, temperature	log of pop, ecodiv, max temperature

	Moran’s I (if significant)	0.3569	0.2688

INDEPENDENT VARIABLES		Odds (sig.)	Odds (sig.)	Odds (sig.)

	Population	2.3751 ^***	2.4558 ^***	2.4000 ^***

	Crop failure (ref=0%)
	Crop failure 1-5%
	Crop failure 5-25%
	Crop failure >25%

	% change in 1934 average daily max temperature from 20 year normal	1.0175 ^***	1.0069 ^**	1.0074 ^***

	% change in 1934 total precipitation from 20 year normal	0.9951 ^***	0.9940 ^***	0.9950 ^***

	% of population in retail employment, 1930	1.0857 ^***	1.0447 ^***	1.0592 ^***

	% of population in manufacturing employment, 1930	0.9815 ^***	0.9866 ^***	0.9825 ^***

	Weighted % change in 3 top crops production, 1930-1940	0.9991 ^***	0.9993 ^***	0.9995 ^***

	Est. % of working age (15-64) population unemployed, 1937	1.0018	1.0067 ^**	1.0082 ^***

	County is urban	0.9253 ^*	0.9266 ^*	0.9717

	Ecodivisions (ref= warm continental)
	Hot continental		1.0144	1.0306
	Subtropical		1.1941 ^***	1.2674 ^***
	Prairie		1.3636 ^***	1.3479 ^***
	Temperate steppe		1.3812 ^***	1.3633 ^***
	Subtropical & tropical steppe		1.7012 ^***	1.7037 ^***
	Subtropical & tropical desert		1.4150 ^***	1.4617 ^***
	Temperate desert		1.3686 ^***	1.3221 ^***
	Mediterranean		1.7142 ^***	1.6475 ^***
	Marine		1.9351 ^***	1.8888 ^***

Significance codes:

^***

^**

0.001

0.01

^․

0.05