Figure 3.
Magnitude and duration of 1.5 °C temperature target overshoot for 5–95% range of climate response. Contours show the interpolated maximum magnitude (in °C) (a–c) and duration (in years) (d–f) of the period of overshoot beyond 1.5 °C as a function of decarbonization (indexed by growth rate and a mid-century benchmark, see Methods) and negative emissions implementation (indexed by growth rate and maximum deployment, see Methods) with the highest rates of decarbonization and negative emissions towards the origin. White areas show scenario spaces with no overshoot, and stippled areas scenario spaces where the quantity is still undefined in 2300. Low, median and high climate responses correspond to transient climate responses (TCRs) of 1.0 °C, 1.6 °C and 3.3 °C.