Table 1.
Projected impacts of climate change (CC) on fine particle (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) related health effects and characteristics of studies published in 2012-2017
| Region | Calculated health effects | Used CC projection scenario | Air pollution emissions and dynamics | Used CC and air pollution models | Included periods | Additional factors taken into account | Main results | Reference |
| Global | PM2.5 related all-cause and O3 related respiratory mortality | A1B | Present constant | GFDL, AM3 | 1981-2000, 2081-2100 | - | In 2081-2100 4% increase in PM2.5 related all-cause mortality and 0.9% in O3 related respiratory mortality compared to 1981-2000 | [30] |
| Global and different regions | PM2.5 and O3 related mortality | RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5 | Natural dynamic, anthropogenic constant | ACCMIP model ensemble | 2000, 2030, 2050, 2100 | Population projection from 2010 through 2100 | PM2.5 related mortality peaking in 2030 (2.4-2.6 million deaths annually and then declining to between 0.56-1.55 million deaths annually (except for RCP6.0) O3 related mortality peaking in 2050 (1.18-2.6 million deaths annually) and then declining to between 1.1-2.4 million deaths annually | [31] |
| Global, Europe, France | PM2.5 related cardiovascular (CV) and O3 related respiratory mortality | Only for Europe and France (RCP4.5) | Present and future (CLE, MFR) | IPSL-cm5-MR, LDMz-INCA, CHIMERE | 2010, 2030, 2050 | Population 2030 as sensitivity analysis | In 2030 in Europe PM2.5 related CV mortality decrease by 1.9% under CLE and 2.2% under MFR and in 2050 3.8% decrease under both scenarios compared to 2010. In 2030 O3 related respiratory mortality decrease by 0.2% under CLE and 0.3% under MFR compared to 2010 | [29] |
| Europe | O3 related non-accidental mortality and respiratory hospitalizations | A1B, A2 | Present constant | MATCH-RCA3, ECHAM4, HadCM3 | 1961-1990, 1990-2009, 2021-2050, 2041-2060 |
- | In 2021-2050 13.7% increase in O3 related non-accidental mortality with A2 scenario and 8.6% increase with A1B scenario compared to 1961-1990 | [33] |
| Europe | O3 and PM2.5 non-accidental mortality | A1B | Present and future (in accordance to RCP4.5) | ECHAM5, DEHM, MATCH | 2000s, 2050s, 2080s | Population projection 2050, PM2.5 infiltration change in the future | Climate only: in 2050s 8-11% increase and in 2080s 15-16% increase in non-accidental mortality compared to 2000s (O3 and PM2.5 combined) Climate and emissions combined: in 2050s 36-64% and in 2080s 53-84% decrease in O3 related non-accidental mortality compared to 2000s and in 2050s 62-65% and in 2080s 78-79% decrease in PM2.5 related mortality compared to 2000s |
[34] |
| UK | O3 non-accidental mortality and morbidity | A2, B2 | Present and future (CLE, MFR) | EMEP-WRF | 2003, 2030 | Population projections, +5 °C temperature increase scenario | If temperature will increase by 5 °C, the O3 related non-accidental mortality will increase from 4% (no O3 threshold) to 30% (35 ppbv O3 threshold) | [36] |
| Poland | PM2.5 non-accidental mortality | A1B | Present constant | ECHAM5-RegCM3, CAMx | 1990s, 2040s, 2090s | - | Compared to 1990s 6% decrease in PM2.5 related non-accidental mortality in the 2040s and 7% decrease in 2090s | [37] |
| US | O3 summer-time non-accidental mortality | A1B, A2, A1Fi, B1 | Biogenic and evaporative dynamic, anthropogenic constant | 2 global and 5 regional modelling systems | 2000, 2050 | Population projection 2050 | In 2050 depending on model choice from 600 avoided premature deaths due to O3 to 2,500 additional premature deaths compared to 2050 | [42] |
| US | O3 related mortality and morbidity | A1, B2 | Present and future (EPA, 2030) | GISS and CESM, WRF, CMAQ | 1995-2005, 2025-2035 | - | In 2030s annually 37 and 420 additional excess deaths due to O3 compared to 2000s with RCP6 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively | [41] |
| US | PM2.5 and O3 related annual mortality | RCP8.5 | Present and future (in accordance to RCP8.5) | CESM, WRF, CMAQ | 2002-2004, 2057-2059 | Population projection 2050 | In 2050s 7,500 additional PM2.5 related and 2,100 additional O3 related premature deaths with population kept constant and 42,600 less PM2.5 related and 1,300 additional O3 related premature deaths with 2050s population | [43] |
| US | PM2.5 related annual and O3 related summer-time mortality | POL4.5, POL3.7 | Present constant | IGSM-CAM, CAM-Chem | 1980-2010, 2035-2055, 2085-2115 | - | In 2050 11,000 and 13,000 and in 2100 52,000 and 57,000 avoided PM2.5 and O3 related premature deaths compared to 2000, respectively for POL4.5 and POL3.7 scenario | [39] |
| US | O3 summer-time non-accidental mortality | A2 | Present and future (in accordance to RCP8.5) | Global and regional climate and ozone models +Bayesian model | 2000, 2050 | - | In 2050 1,212 additional O3 related premature mortalities with present emissions and 4,473 less premature mortalities with future emissions compared to 2000 | [48] |
| 94 US urban areas | O3 summer-time non-accidental mortality | RCP6.0 | Biogenic dynamic, anthropogenic constant | Spatial monotone ozone-temperature surface model | 1995-2005, 2025-2035 | Both 2000 and 2030 population | In 2025-2035 from 7.7% (35 ppb O3 threshold) to 14.2% (75 ppb O3 threshold) increase in O3 related non-accidental mortality compared to 1995-2005 | [49] |
| Atlanta metropolitan area | O3 related ED visits | A2 | Present and future (OECD90) | 8 different models | 1999-2004, 2041-2070 | - | In 2041-2070 annually from 267 to 466 (depending on model) excess O3 related ED visits compared to 1999-2004 | [53] |
| Japan | PM2.5 related mortality | RCP4.5 | MIROC-AOGCM | NICAM-Chem, high and low resolution model | 2000-2003, 2030-2033 | Population projection 2030 | In 2030s from 63.6% increase (0 μg/m3 threshold) to 8.7% decrease (5.8 μg/m3 threshold) in PM2.5 related mortality compared to 2000s (high resolution model) | [46] |
| Korea | O3 summer-time non-accidental mortality | RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5 | Present and future (in accordance to RCPs) | ICAMS | 1996-2005, 2016-2025, 2046-2055 | Current mortality trends expected to increase, temperature effects compared | In 2020s from 0.0% to 0.5% increase and in 2050s from 0.2% to 0.6% increase in O3 related non-accidental mortality compared to 2000s | [48] |
| Sydney | O3 related mortality | A2 | Present constant | CGCM, CCAM, TAPM-CMT | 1996-2005, 2051-2060 | - | In 2050s from 27.3% (40 ppb O3 threshold) to 2.3% (0 ppb O3 threshold) increase in O3 related mortality compared to 2000s | [47] |