Table 3.
Probability (%) of a major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) or a hip fracture (with 95% tolerance intervals (TI)) in women at the percentiles of the probability distribution (surrogate version) by age
| Age | Percentile | r value | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 50 | 90 | |||||
| Surrogate | Authentic (95% TI) | Surrogate | Authentic (95% TI) | Surrogate | Authentic (95% TI) | ||
| MOF | |||||||
| 50 | 5 | 4 (3–4) | 12 | 8 (8–9) | 31 | 21 (21–22) | 0.998 |
| 60 | 6 | 4 (3–5) | 15 | 10 (9–11) | 35 | 26 (25–27) | 0.996 |
| 70 | 6 | 6 (6–7) | 14 | 15 (14–15) | 35 | 36 (36–37) | 1.000 |
| 80 | 6 | 9 (9–10) | 14 | 21 (20–21) | 36 | 47 (47–48) | 0.995 |
| Hip | |||||||
| 50 | 0.3 | 0.2 (0.0–0.4) | 2.3 | 1.4 (1.2–1.6) | 20 | 12.3 (12.0–12.5) | 0.999 |
| 60 | 0.5 | 0.4 (0.3–0.5) | 3.1 | 2.5 (2.4–2.6) | 19 | 15.4 (15.3–15.5) | 1.000 |
| 70 | 1.0 | 1.1 (0.9–1.4) | 5.0 | 5.7 (5.4–5.9) | 25 | 27.3 (27.0–27.6) | 1.000 |
| 80 | 1.7 | 2.7 (1.9–3.6) | 7.9 | 12.2 (11.3–13.1) | 30 | 40.3 (39.4–41.2) | 0.995 |