Fig. 1.

(A) Ensemble mean of CAPE⁹⁵ (colors) and 5 mm$\cdot {\text{d}}^{-1}$ contour of time mean and ensemble mean precipitation (gray) based on 12 CMIP5 models for the period 1981–2000. (B) Change in the ensemble mean CAPE⁹⁵ from the current climate (1981–2000) to the future climate (2081–2100) under the RCP8.5 scenario. Stipling in B indicates regions where 11 of the 12 models agree on the sign of the response.