Table S1.

Prediction models for total number of exacerbations and number of severe exacerbations using COPDGene data: coefficients (SE) and p-values^*

	COPDGene1
	Total exacerbations		Severe exacerbations
	Coefficient (SE)	p-value	Coefficient (SE)	p-value
Intercept	2.06 (1.06)	0.052	−1.68 (1.42)	0.24
Sex (1= female)	0.21 (0.07)	0.001	0.20 (0.09)	0.03
Age (years)	−0.0012 (0.005)	0.79	−0.0037 (0.006)	0.54
FEV1% predicted (in %)	−0.011 (0.002)	<0.001	−0.015 (0.002)	<0.001
Number of exacerbations prior to baseline	–	–	0.77 (0.11)#	<0.001
One exacerbation	0.56 (0.08)	<0.001	–	–
Two exacerbations	0.67 (0.12)	<0.001	–	–
Three exacerbations	0.81 (0.17)	<0.001	–	–
Four exacerbations	0.67 (0.23)	0.004	–	–
Five exacerbations	0.52 (0.43)	0.23	–	–
Six or more exacerbations	0.83 (0.24)	<0.001	–	–
BMI <20 kg/m2 (1= yes)	−0.020 (0.13)	0.88	0.26 (0.17)	0.14
History of cardiovascular disease (1= yes)	0.071 (0.11)	0.51	0.23 (0.14)	0.10
SGRQ total score at baseline (in points)	0.015 (0.002)	<0.001	0.023 (0.003)	<0.001
Smoker (1= yes, 0= former)	−0.22 (0.08)	0.006	−0.014 (0.11)	0.90
Cough (1= yes)	0.15 (0.07)	0.043	0.011 (0.10)	0.91
Wheeze (1= yes)	0.32 (0.08)	<0.001	0.29 (0.11)	0.01
Resting O2 saturation (in %)	−0.034 (0.01)	0.001	−0.0055 (0.01)	0.69

Notes:

^#Severe exacerbations in the year prior to baseline: yes/no.

^*Predicted rate can be calculated using the following formula: Predicted rate = e^{(intercept + value predictor1 * coefficient predictor1 + value predictor2 * coefficient predictor2 + ….)}.

Abbreviations: BMI, body mass index; FEV₁, forced expiratory volume in 1 second; SGRQ, St George’s Respiratory Questionnaire.