Table S4.

Prediction models for total number of exacerbations and number of severe exacerbations using ECLIPSE data: coefficients (SE) and p-values^*

	ECLIPSE4
	Total exacerbations		Severe exacerbations
	Coefficient (SE)	p-value	Coefficient (SE)	p-value
Intercept	−1.32 (0.37)	<0.001	−3.62 (0.79)	<0.001
Sex (1= female)	0.27 (0.06)	<0.001	0.049 (0.13)	0.71
Age (years)	0.0098 (0.004)	0.02	0.028 (0.009)	0.003
FEV1% predicted (in %)	−0.012 (0.002)	<0.001	−0.024 (0.005)	<0.001
Number of exacerbations prior to baseline	0.32 (0.02)	<0.001	0.69 (0.09)	<0.001
BMI <20 kg/m2 (1= yes)	0.085 (0.09)	0.35	0.36 (0.17)	0.04
History of cardiovascular disease (1= yes)	−0.020 (0.06)	0.74	0.32 (0.12)	0.009
SGRQ total score at baseline (in points)	0.0083 (0.002)	<0.001	0.017 (0.004)	<0.001
Smoker (1= yes, 0= former)	−0.12 (0.006)	0.046	0.11 (0.13)	0.40
MRC dyspnea	0.026 (0.07)	0.69	−0.077 (0.14)	0.58
Other comorbidities (1= yes)	0.002 (0.06)	0.97	−0.14 (0.13)	0.31
6-min walking test (m)	0.0009 (0.0003)	<0.001	−0.0002 (0.0006)	0.70
Fibrinogen (mg/dL)	0.0001 (0.0003)	0.77	0.0009 (0.0006)	0.10

Note:

^*Predicted rate can be calculated using the following formula: Predicted rate = e^{(intercept + value predictor1 * coefficient predictor1 + value predictor2 * coefficient predictor2 + ….)}.

Abbreviations: BMI, body mass index; ECLIPSE, Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints; FEV₁, forced expiratory volume in 1 second; MRC, Medical Research Council; SGRQ, St George’s Respiratory Questionnaire.