Table S5.
Prediction models for total number of exacerbations and number of severe exacerbations using UPLIFT data: coefficients (SE) and p-values*
| UPLIFT5
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total exacerbations
|
Severe exacerbations
|
|||
| Coefficient (SE) | p-value | Coefficient (SE) | p-value | |
| Intercept | −1.17 (0.21) | <0.001 | −3.62 (0.39) | <0.001 |
| Sex (1= female) | 0.082 (0.05) | 0.07 | 0.019 (0.09) | 0.83 |
| Age (years) | 0.011 (0.002) | <0.001 | 0.031 (0.005) | <0.001 |
| FEV1% predicted (in %) | −0.0013 (0.002) | <0.001 | −0.032 (0.003) | <0.001 |
| Number of exacerbations prior to baseline | 0.23 (0.02) | <0.001 | 0.052 (0.05) | <0.001 |
| BMI <20 kg/m2 (1= yes) | 0.18 (0.06) | 0.005 | 0.61 (0.11) | <0.001 |
| History of cardiovascular disease (1= yes) | −0.015 (0.04) | 0.73 | 0.10 (0.08) | 0.20 |
| SGRQ total score at baseline (in points) | 0.0074 (0.001) | <0.001 | 0.014 (0.02) | <0.001 |
| Treatment group trial (1= yes) | −0.18 (0.04) | <0.001 | −0.15 (0.07) | 0.04 |
| Smoker (1= yes) | 0.05 (0.04) | 0.26 | 0.21 (0.08) | 0.01 |
| Pack-years | 0.002 (0.007) | 0.005 | 0 (0.001) | 0.97 |
| Time since diagnosis (years) | 0.0047 (0.003) | 0.08 | 0.0068 (0.005) | 0.18 |
| Diagnosis of emphysema (1= yes) | −0.032 (0.04) | 0.42 | 0.17 (0.08) | 0.03 |
| Charlson comorbidity index | −0.021 (0.03) | 0.40 | 0.028 (0.05) | 0.53 |
| ICS at baseline (1= yes) | 0.26 (0.04) | <0.001 | 0.21 (0.08) | 0.008 |
Note:
*
Predicted rate can be calculated using the following formula: Predicted rate = e(intercept + value predictor1 * coefficient predictor1 + value predictor2 * coefficient predictor2 + ….).
Abbreviations: BMI, body mass index; FEV1, forced expiratory volume in 1 second; ICS, inhaled corticosteroid; SGRQ, St George’s Respiratory Questionnaire.