Table 2.
Prediction models for total exacerbations including a fixed set of predictors and other database-specific predictors (results from multivariate analysis)
| IRRs#
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COPDGene24 | OLIN25 | RECODE26 | ECLIPSE27 | UPLIFT28 | |
| Fixed set of predictors | |||||
| Sex (1= female) | 1.23** | 2.86* | 1.20 | 1.31*** | 1.09 |
| Age (years) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.01* | 1.01*** |
| FEV1% predicted (in %) | 0.99*** | 0.96** | 0.98*** | 0.99*** | 0.99*** |
| Number of exacerbations prior to baseline | 1.75*** | 1.49*** | 1.58*** | 1.38*** | 1.25*** |
| BMI <20 kg/m2 (1= yes) | 0.98 | 1.65 | – | 1.09 | 1.20** |
| History of cardiovascular disease (1= yes) | 1.07 | 1.13 | 1.06 | 0.98 | 0.99 |
| SGRQ total score at baseline (in points) | 1.01*** | – | 1.02** | 1.01*** | 1.01*** |
| Treatment group in trial (1= yes) | – | – | 1.08 | – | 0.83*** |
| Other database-specific predictors | |||||
| Smoker (1= yes, 0= former) | 0.81** | – | 1.07 | 0.88* | 1.05 |
| Pack-years | – | – | – | – | 1.002** |
| Time since diagnosis (years) | – | – | – | – | 1.005 |
| Diagnosis of emphysema (1= yes) | – | – | – | – | 0.97 |
| Cough (1= yes) | 1.16* | – | – | – | – |
| Wheeze (1= yes) | 1.37*** | – | – | – | – |
| MRC dyspnea | – | – | 0.98 | 1.03 | – |
| Charlson comorbidity index | – | – | 0.98 | – | 0.98 |
| Other comorbidities (1= yes) | – | – | – | 1.00 | – |
| 6-min walking test (m) | – | – | – | 1.001*** | – |
| Physical activity IPAQ (1= low) | – | – | 0.81 | – | – |
| ICS at baseline (1= yes) | – | – | – | – | 1.30*** |
| Resting O2 saturation (in %) | 0.97** | – | – | – | – |
| Fibrinogen (mg/dL) | – | – | – | 1.00 | – |
Notes:
#
Ratios above 1 indicating an increased risk and ratios below 1 indicating a reduced risk for exacerbations.
*
p<0.05.
**
p<0.01.
***
p<0.001.
Abbreviations: BMI, body mass index; ECLIPSE, Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints; FEV1, forced expiratory volume in 1 second; ICS, inhaled corticosteroid; IPAQ, International Physical Activity Questionnaire; IRR, incidence rate ratio; MRC, Medical Research Council; OLIN, Obstructive Lung Disease in Norrbotten; SGRQ, St George’s Respiratory Questionnaire.