Table S3.

Prediction models for total number of exacerbations and number of severe exacerbations using RECODE data: coefficients (SE) and p-values^*

	RECODE3
	Total exacerbations		Severe exacerbations
	Coefficient (SE)	p-value	Coefficient (SE)	p-value
Intercept	−0.93 (0.50)	0.06	−4.34 (1.18)	<0.001
Sex (1= female)	0.18 (0.13)	0.17	−0.45 (0.32)	0.16
Age (years)	0.0039 (0.006)	0.52	0.018 (0.01)	0.19
FEV1% predicted (in %)	−0.016 (0.003)	<0.001	−0.018 (0.008)	0.02
Number of exacerbations prior to baseline	0.46 (0.06)	<0.001	1.65 (0.67)	0.01
History of cardiovascular disease (1= yes)	0.057 (0.21)	0.78	−0.44 (0.53)	0.40
SGRQ total score at baseline (in points)	0.018 (0.005)	0.001	0.028 (0.01)	0.008
Treatment group trial (1= yes)	0.072 (0.13)	0.57	−0.038 (0.30)	0.90
Smoker (1= yes, 0= former)	0.069 (0.14)	0.64	0.0 (0.31)	0.11
MRC dyspnea	−0.023 (0.07)	0.73	0.13 (0.14)	0.38
Charlson comorbidity index	−0.020 (0.06)	0.75	0.025 (0.15)	0.87
Physical activity IPAQ (1= low)	−0.21 (0.20)	0.28	−0.018 (0.50)	0.97

Note:

^*Predicted rate can be calculated using the following formula: Predicted rate = e^{(intercept + value predictor1 * coefficient predictor1 + value predictor2 * coefficient predictor2 + ….)}.

Abbreviations: FEV₁, forced expiratory volume in 1 second; IPAQ, International Physical Activity Questionnaire; SGRQ, St George’s Respiratory Questionnaire.