Table 3.

Trial enrichment example—tabulation of predicted probabilities of observing a 30% decline of eGFR as a function of baseline TKV, eGFR, or age

Time (yr)	Predicted probabilities of a 30% decline of eGFR
	Baseline TKV (ml)		Baseline eGFR (ml/min per 1.73 m2)		Baseline age (yr)
	≥1000	<1000	<50	≥50	≥40	≥40
1	1.75%	0.85%	1.41%	1.20%	1.32%	1.29%
2	3.97%	1.97%	3.20%	2.74%	3.01%	2.93%
3	9.88%	5.09%	8.03%	6.94%	7.61%	7.36%
4	15.8%	8.40%	12.9%	11.3%	12.3%	11.9%
5	20.8%	11.3%	17.1%	15.0%	16.3%	15.8%
6	25.2%	14.1%	20.8%	18.4%	20.0%	19.3%
7	34.8%	20.3%	29.0%	26.1%	28.0%	27.1%
8	42.9%	26.2%	36.2%	33.0%	35.0%	34.1%
9	48.0%	30.1%	40.7%	37.4%	39.5%	38.6%
10	53.1%	34.3%	45.3%	42.0%	44.1%	43.2%

These results suggest that, when eGFR is preserved, patients with larger TKV are more likely to progress to a 30% decline of eGFR within the course of a clinical trial, whereas eGFR and age displayed limited predictive value of disease progression in early disease.

eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; TKV, total kidney volume.