Table 3. Parsimonious multivariable cox proportional hazard model* for prediction† of SCD and non-sudden CV death in participants with AF in the ARIC study.
| # SCD = 110 | # non-sudden CV | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| deaths = 375 | ||||
| Variables | HR (95% CI) | P-value | HR (95% CI) | P-value |
| Age (per 5 years) | 1.32 (1.11–1.58) | 0.002 | 1.28 (1.16–1.41) | <0.0001 |
| BMI (per 5 unit increase) | 1.15 (0.97–1.36) | 0.10 | ||
| Coronary heart disease | 3.27 (2.20–4.87) | <0.0001 | 1.64 (1.28–2.10) | <0.0001 |
| Hypertension | 1.69 (1.10–2.61) | 0.02 | 1.68 (1.32–2.12) | <0.0001 |
| Diabetes | 2.41 (1.59–3.65) | <0.0001 | 1.61 (1.28–2.01) | <0.0001 |
| Current smoker | 1.85 (1.18–2.90) | 0.007 | 1.57 (1.24–2.00) | 0.0002 |
| LVH by ECG criteria | 2.30 (1.26–4.21) | 0.007 | 1.41 (0.97–2.04) | 0.07 |
| Heart rate, bpm (per SD increase) | 1.18 (0.99–1.41) | 0.07 | ||
| Albumin (per SD decrease) | 1.23 (1.02–1.48) | 0.03 | ||
| Race (black) | 1.76 (1.38–2.23) | <0.0001 | ||
| Heart failure | 1.58 (1.09–2.28) | 0.02 | ||
| Digoxin | 1.33 (0.99–1.79) | 0.06 | ||
| eGFR (per SD decrease) | 1.21 (1.10–1.33) | 0.0002 | ||
| QTc interval (per SD increase) | 1.64 (1.15–2.35) | 0.006 | ||
AF indicates atrial fibrillation; ARIC, Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities; BMI, body mass index; bpm, beats per minute; CV, cardiovascular; ECG, electrocardiogram; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; HR, hazard ratio; LVH, left ventricular hypertrophy; QTc, corrected QT interval; SCD, sudden cardiac death; SD, standard deviation.
* Cause-specific analysis
† Significant predictors were obtained using backwards elimination (p<0.10) of the candidate predictor variables.