Table 3.

Effect of estimating $σ_{infl}^{2}$ on uncertainty about epidemic estimates of HIV prevalence and incidence.

	HIV prevalence				HIV incidence

	1990	1995	2000	2005	1990	1995	2000	2005
r-trend model
CV, no $σ_{infl}^{2}$	0.19 [0.12–0.23]	0.09 [0.07–0.11]	0.08 [0.05–0.09]	0.06 [0.05–0.09]	0.13 [0.11–0.20]	0.11 [0.09–0.14]	0.11 [0.07–0.15]	0.12 [0.09–0.17]
CV, $σ_{infl}^{2}$ estim.	0.26 [0.18–0.39]	0.13 [0.09–0.19]	0.10 [0.07–0.12]	0.07 [0.05–0.09]	0.25 [0.18–0.39]	0.16 [0.13–0.20]	0.13 [0.10–0.19]	0.15 [0.10–0.19]
Ratio	1.49 [1.26–1.78]	1.32 [1.22–1.68]	1.25 [1.11–1.46]	1.04 [1.01–1.12]	1.52 [1.25–1.94]	1.36 [1.20–1.73]	1.27 [1.06–1.39]	1.11 [1.01–1.31]
r-spline model
CV, no $σ_{infl}^{2}$	0.16 [0.12–0.21]	0.08 [0.07–0.10]	0.07 [0.06–0.08]	0.06 [0.05–0.09]	0.12 [0.11–0.16]	0.10 [0.09–0.13]	0.10 [0.08–0.14]	0.12 [0.09–0.16]
CV, $σ_{infl}^{2}$ estim.	0.21 [0.16–0.29]	0.12 [0.09–0.17]	0.08 [0.07–0.11]	0.07 [0.05–0.09]	0.17 [0.13–0.23]	0.13 [0.09–0.18]	0.10 [0.08–0.13]	0.12 [0.09–0.18]
Ratio	1.40 [1.19–1.54]	1.33 [1.17–1.51]	1.18 [1.09–1.29]	1.03 [1.00–1.08]	1.34 [1.11–1.50]	1.21 [1.12–1.40]	1.03 [0.95–1.13]	1.10 [0.98–1.18]
r-spline, no equilibrium prior
CV, no $σ_{infl}^{2}$	0.16 [0.12–0.21]	0.09 [0.07–0.11]	0.07 [0.06–0.08]	0.07 [0.05–0.09]	0.12 [0.11–0.16]	0.11 [0.09–0.13]	0.10 [0.07–0.15]	0.13 [0.10–0.18]
CV, $σ_{infl}^{2}$ estim.	0.21 [0.17–0.29]	0.13 [0.10–0.16]	0.10 [0.08–0.11]	0.07 [0.06–0.09]	0.17 [0.15–0.23]	0.15 [0.12–0.17]	0.12 [0.09–0.16]	0.15 [0.12–0.22]
Ratio	1.36 [1.10–1.60]	1.36 [1.18–1.56]	1.23 [1.09–1.35]	1.06 [1.03–1.13]	1.37 [1.15–1.54]	1.29 [1.15–1.43]	1.14 [1.01–1.27]	1.16 [1.09–1.32]

Measured via coefficient of variation (CV) in years 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2005 when estimating $σ_{infl}^{2}$ versus not. Results are median and interquartile range (IQR) over 40 datasets. CV, coefficient of variation.