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. 2017 Nov 1;3(4):e83. doi: 10.2196/publichealth.7344

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©John S Brownstein, Shuyu Chu, Achla Marathe, Madhav V Marathe, Andre T Nguyen, Daniela Paolotti, Nicola Perra, Daniela Perrotta, Mauricio Santillana, Samarth Swarup, Michele Tizzoni, Alessandro Vespignani, Anil Kumar S Vullikanti, Mandy L Wilson, Qian Zhang. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (http://publichealth.jmir.org), 01.11.2017.

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work, first published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, is properly cited. The complete bibliographic information, a link to the original publication on http://publichealth.jmir.org, as well as this copyright and license information must be included.

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(Top panel) The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) influenza-like illness (ILI) percent value (y-axis) is displayed as a function of time (x-axis). Predictions produced 1 week ahead of the publication of CDC-ILI reports using (1) only historical CDC information via an autoregressive model, AR(2), (2) an autoregressive model that combines historical CDC information with Flu Near You (FNY) information, AR(2)+FNY, and (3) an ensemble method that combines multiple data sources including FNY, Google search frequencies, electronic health records, and historical CDC information (all sources) are shown. (Bottom panel) The errors between the predictions and the CDC-reported ILI for each prediction model are displayed.