Table 2.
Results of hierarchical semi-log polynomial regression models on amenable age-standardized death rates from all causes (per 100,000 persons) in 22 OECD European countries (2000 to 2014)
| Variable | Regression | Bootstrap | P | Normal-based |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| coefficient (b) | standard error | 95% CI | ||
| Year | −0.040 | 0.002 | <0.001 | −0.043, −0.037 |
| Year2 | <0.001 | <0.001 | 0.538 | > − 0.001, 0.001 |
| Societal regulation (ref. Statal) | −0.420 | 0.179 | 0.019 | −0.732, −0.040 |
| Societal financing (ref. Statal) | 0.505 | 0.206 | 0.014 | 0.092, 0.865 |
| Private provision (ref. Statal) | −0.085 | 0.123 | 0.493 | −0.306, 0.186 |
| Societal regulation × Year | −0.003 | 0.004 | 0.467 | −0.011, 0.004 |
| Societal financing × Year | 0.003 | 0.007 | 0.708 | −0.010, 0.017 |
| Private provision × Year | 0.002 | 0.007 | 0.807 | −0.012, 0.012 |
| Societal regulation × Year2 | 0.001 | <0.001 | 0.010 | <0.001, 0.002 |
| Societal financing × Year2 | −0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | −0.002, −0.001 |
| Private provision × Year2 | 0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | 0.001, 0.002 |
| Constant | 4.393 | 0.053 | <0.001 | 4.295, 4.506 |
| Random-effects parameters | ||||
| SD(Country-year) | 0.026 | 0.005 | <0.001 | 0.018, 0.039 |
| SD(Country) | 0.293 | 0.065 | <0.001 | 0.189, 0.454 |
| SD(Year) | 0.006 | 0.002 | <0.001 | 0.003, 0.010 |
| SD(Year2) | <0.001 | 0.002 | 0.505 | n/a |
Abbreviations: SDR, age-standardized death rate; 95% CI, 95% confidence interval; SD, standard deviation; n/a, not available
Notes: The quadratic term, year2, indicates the presence of a curvilinear (or nonlinear, U-shaped) trend over time. When year2 is positive and the linear term or slope, year, is negative, the trend is decreasing and slightly convex. The interaction terms (marked with the sign “×”) indicate how much year and year2 are different for different health care system types. So, year and year2 represent the linear and quadratic slope when regulation, financing and provision are issued by public actors, i.e., the reference category for each dimension. To obtain the linear decline in amenable SDRs for, say, countries with a societal regulation system, it is necessary to add the slope and the corresponding interaction term (−0.040–0.003 = −0.043). The exponential of the last term, constant, represents the average amenable SDR value for countries with public regulation, financing and provision (e 4.393 = 88.88)