Table 4. Model-set performance metrics: Model predictions vs. independent observations over three years (2014–2016).
| Species | Metric | Year* | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2014−2016 | ||
| Rhodnius pictipes | Pearson’s ρ | 0.778 | 0.791 | 0.722 | 0.794 |
| MBE | −0.997 | −2.213 | −3.184 | −2.131 | |
| MAE | 2.912 | 3.997 | 4.740 | 3.747 | |
| Within ±5 bugs | 122 (87.8%) | 121 (87.1%) | 120 (86.3%) | 121 (87.1%) | |
| Rhodnius robustus | Pearson’s ρ | 0.361 | 0.330 | 0.323 | 0.346 |
| MBE | 0.691 | 0.332 | 0.216 | 0.413 | |
| MAE | 1.437 | 1.781 | 1.844 | 1.649 | |
| Within ±5 bugs | 132 (95.0%) | 131 (94.2%) | 129 (92.8%) | 131 (94.2%) | |
| Rhodnius neglectus | Pearson’s ρ | 0.309 | 0.355 | 0.475 | 0.412 |
| MBE | 0.197 | −0.436 | −0.098 | −0.095 | |
| MAE | 2.315 | 2.611 | 2.357 | 2.169 | |
| Within ±5 bugs | 125 (89.9%) | 122 (87.8%) | 126 (90.7%) | 124 (89.2%) | |
| Panstrongylus geniculatus | Pearson’s ρ | 0.346 | 0.463 | 0.432 | 0.464 |
| MBE | −0.428 | −1.256 | −1.385 | −1.023 | |
| MAE | 2.565 | 3.204 | 3.298 | 2.737 | |
| Within ±5 bugs | 122 (87.8%) | 124 (89.2%) | 118 (84.9%) | 123 (88.5%) |
*Data for 2014–2016 became available after modeling was complete; the metrics in this Table compare the predictions of each species’ model set with the independent data for each year and with the (per-year) data of the three-year period (2014–2016). The performance metrics are: Pearson’s ρ, Pearson’s product moment correlation coefficient; MBE, mean bias error; MAE, mean absolute error; ‘Within ±5 bugs’, number (and percent) of municipalities where model-based predictions and independent observations differed by ±5 house-invading bugs or less