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. 2017 Nov 16;7:15737. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-15945-x

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© The Author(s) 2017

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Prediction of the number of deaths. The plots show the cumulative difference $E$ (Eq. 10) between the predicted and the actual number of deaths from 1100 to 1699 days for the AR and VAR models, using three different transformed variables for (a) Syria and (b) England.