Fig 1. Performance of statin adherence models.

The Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves for two models that predict statin adherence defined as percent days covered (PDC) greater than 0.8 during the follow-up period. The results of the risk only model uses random forest modeling and considers baseline demographics, statin prescription characteristics, disease risk predictions, and the ‘factors” resulting from dimension reduction to predict statin adherence. The “risk + first refill” model uses the same predictors as the risk only model but also considers whether or not the first statin prescription was filled and predicts statin adherence for the remaining time period after the first fill. The area represents the area under the ROC curve.