Table 1.
Median (interquartile range), Pearson correlation coefficient (COR), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute proportion error (MAPE) for RRS, RR0, RRR models, and Google Flu Trends (GFT). Results are stratified by state population size and season.
|
Measure |
RRS, median (interquartile range) |
RR0, median (interquartile range) |
RRR, median (interquartile range) |
GFTa, median (interquartile range) |
||
| CORb | ||||||
| Overall | 0.85 (0.74-0.91) | 0.83 (0.7-0.9) | 0.86 (0.75-0.91) | 0.89 (0.8-0.94) | ||
| Population size (millions) | ||||||
| 0-2 (n=14) | 0.79 (0.64-0.87) | 0.76 (0.62-0.86) | 0.81 (0.67-0.88) | 0.83 (0.72-0.91) | ||
| 2-5 (n=14) | 0.84 (0.72-0.89) | 0.82 (0.7-0.89) | 0.84 (0.75-0.90) | 0.9 (0.81-0.94) | ||
| 5-7.5 (n=10) | 0.84 (0.74-0.91) | 0.82 (0.7-0.9) | 0.86 (0.73-0.92) | 0.89 (0.8-0.95) | ||
| ≥7.5 (n=12) | 0.91 (0.85-0.93) | 0.9 (0.84-0.93) | 0.91 (0.86-0.94) | 0.93 (0.86-0.96) | ||
| Season | ||||||
| 05-06 | 0.8 (0.62-0.85) | 0.8 (0.62-0.85) | 0.81 (0.64-0.87) | 0.83 (0.71-0.88) | ||
| 06-07 | 0.82 (0.65-0.88) | 0.8 (0.6-0.88) | 0.82 (0.71-0.89) | 0.83 (0.76-0.9) | ||
| 07-08 | 0.88 (0.81-0.92) | 0.87 (0.79-0.92) | 0.89 (0.82-0.93) | 0.93 (0.87-0.96) | ||
| 08-09 | 0.75 (0.69-0.83) | 0.71 (0.58-0.82) | 0.78 (0.67-0.83) | 0.81 (0.71-0.89) | ||
| 09-10 | 0.9 (0.85-0.93) | 0.89 (0.8-0.93) | 0.9 (0.85-0.93) | 0.97 (0.94-0.98) | ||
| 10-11 | 0.89 (0.82-0.92) | 0.88 (0.75-0.91) | 0.89 (0.85-0.92) | 0.89 (0.86-0.93) | ||
| RMSEc | ||||||
| Overall | 0.99 (0.7-1.51) | 1.06 (0.73-1.56) | 0.97 (0.72-1.54) | 0.93 (0.66-1.33) | ||
| Population size (millions) | ||||||
| 0-2 (n=14) | 1.06 (0.69-1.58) | 1.19 (0.73-1.62) | 1.05 (0.72-1.6) | 0.88 (0.63-1.29) | ||
| 2-5 (n=14) | 1.21 (0.84-1.87) | 1.33 (0.92-1.81) | 1.22 (0.83-1.84) | 1.02 (0.78-1.52) | ||
| 5-7.5 (n=10) | 0.93 (0.65-1.21) | 0.98 (0.72-1.33) | 0.93 (0.61-1.14) | 0.88 (0.67-1.48) | ||
| ≥7.5 (n=12) | 0.87 (0.66-1.01) | 0.85 (0.70-1.08) | 0.88 (0.69-1.01) | 0.87 (0.63-1.16) | ||
| Season | ||||||
| 05-06 | 0.93 (0.64-1.5) | 0.92 (0.70-1.64) | 0.93 (0.64-1.52) | 0.88 (0.60-1.45) | ||
| 06-07 | 0.84 (0.56-1.16) | 0.89 (0.57-1.16) | 0.85 (0.5-1.1) | 0.82 (0.52-1.13) | ||
| 07-08 | 1.08 (0.81-1.7) | 1.06 (0.83-1.59) | 0.99 (0.82-1.67) | 1.09 (0.70-1.55) | ||
| 08-09 | 1.02 (0.77-1.47) | 1.10 (0.79-1.48) | 1.03 (0.79-1.55) | 1.02 (0.79-1.41) | ||
| 09-10 | 1.31 (0.98-1.77) | 1.40 (1.08-1.72) | 1.28 (0.98-1.72) | 1.05 (0.80-1.32) | ||
| 10-11 | 0.77 (0.59-1.16) | 0.83 (0.61-1.26) | 0.83 (0.59-1.15) | 0.73 (0.64-1.20) | ||
| MAPEd (/1000) | ||||||
| Overall | 0.8 (0.43-1.75) | 0.67 (0.42-1.54) | 0.77 (0.43-1.62) | 0.71 (0.44-1.51) | ||
| Population size (millions) | ||||||
| 0-2 (n=14) | 0.9 (0.54-1.7) | 0.77 (0.51-1.41) | 0.84 (0.55-1.55) | 0.76 (0.51-1.56) | ||
| 2-5 (n=14) | 0.95 (0.48-1.79) | 0.82 (0.44-1.65) | 0.87 (0.45-1.71) | 0.77 (0.41-1.48) | ||
| 5-7.5 (n=10) | 0.65 (0.36-1.62) | 0.59 (0.37-1.69) | 0.63 (0.35-1.57) | 0.68 (0.4-1.41) | ||
| ≥7.5 (n=12) | 0.65 (0.34-1.64) | 0.54 (0.3-1.34) | 0.65 (0.33-1.5) | 0.7 (0.43-1.54) | ||
| Season | ||||||
| 05-06 | 1.2 (0.46-3.06) | 0.78 (0.47-2.77) | 0.99 (0.49-2.72) | 1.07 (0.56-2.67) | ||
| 06-07 | 0.97 (0.53-1.84) | 0.92 (0.49-1.81) | 0.91 (0.51-1.67) | 0.88 (0.46-1.48) | ||
| 07-08 | 0.85 (0.5-1.67) | 0.83 (0.49-1.64) | 0.81 (0.51-1.51) | 0.76 (0.5-1.57) | ||
| 08-09 | 0.82 (0.47-1.59) | 0.67 (0.43-1.36) | 0.84 (0.43-1.52) | 0.71 (0.44-1.48) | ||
| 09-10 | 0.73 (0.36-1.96) | 0.64 (0.4-1.83) | 0.74 (0.36-1.96) | 0.63 (0.43-1.17) | ||
| 10-11 | 0.49 (0.3-1.04) | 0.48 (0.28-0.96) | 0.48 (0.31-1.04) | 0.61 (0.32-0.93) | ||
aGFT: Google Flu Trends.
bCOR: Pearson correlation coefficient.
cRMSE: root mean square error.
dMAPE: mean absolute percentage error.