Table 2.
Annual cardiometabolic deaths potentially prevented by a 10% or 30% price change for selected foods in the USa
| Dietary factors | Disease outcomeb | 10% price changec | 30% price changec | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. of deaths/year prevented (95% UI) | Proportion (%) of deaths prevented (95% UI) | No. of deaths/year prevented (95% UI) | Proportion (%) of deaths prevented (95% UI) | ||
| Overall diet | CHD | 12,236 (11,320–13,230) | 3.4 (3.1–3.6) | 33,293 (30,887–35,798) | 9.2 (8.5–9.9) |
| Hypertensive HD | 45 (34–60) | 0.1 (0.1–0.2) | 134 (102–179) | 0.4 (0.3–0.5) | |
| Stroke | 6942 (6456–7430) | 5.5 (5.1–5.9) | 18726 (17,485–19,955) | 14.9 (13.9–15.8) | |
| Diabetes | 2274 (2063–2626) | 3.4 (3.1–4.0) | 6287 (5756–7050) | 9.5 (8.7–10.6) | |
| CMD, total | 23174 (22,024–24,595) | 3.4 (3.2–3.6) | 63268 (60,425–66,719) | 9.2 (8.8–9.7) | |
| Fruit | CHD | 2213 (1852–2643) | 0.6 (0.5–0.7) | 6143 (5144–7316) | 1.7 (1.4–2.0) |
| Stroke | 3038 (2726–3397) | 2.4 (2.2–2.7) | 8308 (7478–9256) | 6.6 (5.9–7.4) | |
| CMD, total | 5265 (4771–5817) | 0.8 (0.7–0.8) | 14475 (13125–15,974) | 2.1 (1.9–2.3) | |
| Vegetables | CHD | 2873 (2443–3359) | 0.8 (0.7–0.9) | 8223 (7011–9578) | 2.3 (1.9–2.6) |
| Stroke | 3423 (3044–3818) | 2.7 (2.4–3.0) | 9554 (8497–10,585) | 7.6 (6.7–8.4) | |
| CMD, total | 6294 (5722–6901) | 0.9 (0.8–1.0) | 17749 (16,176–19,458) | 2.6 (2.4–2.8) | |
| Nuts/seeds | CHD | 3148 (2710–3599) | 0.9 (0.7–1.0) | 8214 (7116–9326) | 2.3 (2.0–2.6) |
| Diabetes | 269 (227–316) | 0.4 (0.3–0.5) | 701 (592–822) | 1.1 (0.9–1.2) | |
| CMD, total | 3413 (2976–3863) | 0.5 (0.4–0.6) | 8912 (7788–10,049) | 1.3 (1.1–1.5) | |
| Whole grains | CHD | 587 (457–720) | 0.2 (0.1–0.2) | 1741 (1356–2137) | 0.5 (0.4–0.6) |
| Stroke | 514 (453–579) | 0.4 (0.4–0.5) | 1522 (1343–1712) | 1.2 (1.1–1.4) | |
| Diabetes | 425 (372–480) | 0.6 (0.6–0.7) | 1252 (1099–1413) | 1.9 (1.7–2.1) | |
| CMD, total | 1527 (1376–1683) | 0.2 (0.2–0.2) | 4518 (4072–4977) | 0.7 (0.6–0.7) | |
| Processed meats | CHD | 1700 (1315–2206) | 0.5 (0.4–0.6) | 5048 (3906–6493) | 1.4 (1.1–1.8) |
| Diabetes | 477 (385–580) | 0.7 (0.6–0.9) | 1408 (1141–1703) | 2.1 (1.7–2.6) | |
| CMD, total | 2175 (1777–2689) | 0.3 (0.3–0.4) | 6447 (5286–7944) | 0.9 (0.8–1.2) | |
| Red meats, unprocessed | Diabetes | 140 (106–176) | 0.2 (0.2–0.3) | 419 (316–524) | 0.6 (0.5–0.8) |
| Sugar sweetened beverages | CHD | 3544 (2921–4302) | 1.0 (0.8–1.2) | 10091 (8354–12,027) | 2.8 (2.3–3.3) |
| Hypertensive HD | 45 (34–60) | 0.1 (0.1–0.2) | 134 (102–179) | 0.4 (0.3–0.5) | |
| Stroke | 67 (60–76) | 0.1 (0.0–0.1) | 201 (178–226) | 0.2 (0.1–0.2) | |
| Diabetes | 986 (804–1349) | 1.5 (1.2–2.0) | 2729 (2267–3424) | 4.1 (3.4–5.2) | |
| CMD, total | 4647 (3993–5680) | 0.7 (0.6–0.8) | 13169 (11,428–15,366) | 1.9 (1.7–2.2) | |
aEstimated using nationally representative data from the US adult population in 2012 based on a comparative risk assessment framework
bCVD corresponds to the sum of CHD, hypertensive heart disease, and stroke; CMD corresponds to the sum of CVD and diabetes. Values may not precisely add up due to rounding
cEstimates based on a low SES gradient (18.2% differential effect comparing those with lower than high school versus college education)
CMD cardiometabolic diseases, CHD coronary heart disease, HD heart disease, UI uncertainty interval