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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2017 Dec 1.
Published in final edited form as: Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2016 Aug 19;25(12):1643–1645. doi: 10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-16-0488

Figure 1.

Figure 1

ROC for Multivariate Analysis of Biomarkers in the prediction of upgrading A. NCCN 2012 Cohort of 225 Patients. 2012 NCCN guidelines permit low and very low risk patients with a Gleason sum (GS) ≤ 6, a clinical diagnosis of T1-T2a, and a serum PSA value <10ng/ml to enter active surveillance. Patients who have less than 10 years life expectancy are permitted to enter active surveillance if they exhibit only one of the following risk factors: GS 7, or T2b-T2c or PSA 10-20. Baseline GS, serum PSA and Ethnicity gave an AUC value of 0.6969 with or without EPS volume, total recovered RNA, and quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction values for RNA expression levels from TMPRSS2:ERG, PCA3 and PSA . Patient demographics: Ethnicity: Hispanic, 6.3%; Non-Hispanic, 92%; Unknown,1.8%. Race: African American, 3.6%; Asian American,6.3% ; Caucasian American, 87.5%; American Indian,0.4%; Other, 2.2%.

B. NCCN 2014 Cohort of 206 Patients. NCCN guidelines issued in 2014 permit only low and very low risk patients with a GS ≤ 6, a clinical diagnosis of T1-T2a, and a serum PSA value <10ng/ml to enter active surveillance. Baseline GS, serum PSA, age and Ethnicity gave an AUC value of 0.7222 with or without EPS volume, total recovered RNA, and quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction values for RNA expression levels from TMPRSS2:ERG, PCA3 and PSA. Patient demographics: Ethnicity: Hispanic, 6.3%; Non-Hispanic, 91.7%; Unknown,1.9%. Race: African American, 3.9%; Asian American, 5.8%; Caucasian American, 87.8%; American Indian,0.5%; Other,1.9%.