Table 2.

Lifetime Direct Medical Costs, Effectiveness, and Incremental Cost-Effectiveness for Intensive Control versus Standard Control of Systolic Blood Pressure.^*

Scenario	Mean Total Cost			Mean Remaining Lifetime QALYs			ICER	Probability of Cost-Effectiveness
	Intensive Control	Standard Control	Difference (95% UI)	Intensive Control	Standard Control	Difference (95% UI)		$50K per QALY	$100K per QALY	$150K per QALY
	dollars						dollars	percent
Base case	284,637	271,841	12,796 (−872 to 26,551)	12.45	12.17	0.27 (−0.06 to 0.64)	46,546	54	79	86
Worst case	283,401	270,965	12,436 (−2,148 to 28,091)	12.31	12.06	0.25 (−0.11 to 0.61)	49,851	51	76	84
Best case for 15 yr	286,161	274,163	11,998 (−862 to 25,365)	12.58	12.25	0.33 (0.01 to 0.71)	36,352	66	88	94
Best case for lifetime	285,909	274,146	11,763 (−5,386 to 29,232)	12.82	12.40	0.43 (0.04 to 0.84)	27,617	79	93	96

^*Shown are the results of probabilistic analyses running the model 1000 times with the use of randomly selected values for input measurements from predefined distributions. The uncertainty intervals (UIs) show the 2.5 to 97.5 percentiles for the incremental differences in costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The uncertainty of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), which was calculated as the cost per QALY gained, is shown by the probability that intensive control is cost-effective at the specified willingness-to-pay thresholds. Costs are direct medical costs. The four post-trial scenarios for medication adherence and treatment effects are as follows: base case (reduced adherence and treatment effects after 5 years until nonadherence and no treatment effects at 15 years), worst case (nonadherence and no treatment effects after 5 years), best case until 15 years (in-trial adherence and persistence of treatment effects for 15 years), and lifetime best case (lifetime in-trial adherence and treatment effects).