Skip to main content
. 2017 Jun 6;317(21):2187–2195. doi: 10.1001/jama.2017.4078

Table 3. Prevalence and Likelihood Ratios and for Physicians’ Predictions, Nurses’ Predictions, and Concordant Predictions.

Outcome All Predictions Confident Predictionsa
Prevalence, No./Total (%)b Likelihood Ratio (95% CI) Prevalence, No./Total (%)b Likelihood Ratio (95% CI)
Positive Negative Positive Negative
Physicians’ Predictions
In-hospital mortality 69/298 (23) 4.81
(2.91-7.95)
0.64
(0.52-0.78)
19/158 (12) 7.32
(3.11-17.20)
0.61
(0.42-0.90)
6-mo mortality 128/296 (43) 5.91
(3.74-9.32)
0.41
(0.33-0.52)
40/120 (33) 33.00
(8.34-130.63)
0.18
(0.09-0.35)
Unable to return to original residence at 6 mo 156/294 (53) 3.20
(2.21-4.62)
0.49
(0.40-0.60)
63/122 (52) 5.62
(2.91-10.86)
0.28
(0.18-0.43)
Unable to toilet independently at 6 mo 30/165 (18) 6.00
(3.18-11.30)
0.51
(0.35-0.75)
17/82 (21) 22.94
(5.67-92.89)
0.30
(0.15-0.64)
Unable to ambulate up 10 stairs at 6 mo 47/163 (29) 2.18
(1.53-3.11)
0.51
(0.34-0.76)
25/72 (35) 3.76
(1.99-7.10)
0.35
(0.18-0.66)
Abnormal cognition at 6 mo 62/164 (38) 2.36
(1.36-4.12)
0.75
(0.61-0.92)
32/90 (39) 4.53
(1.54-13.29)
0.74
(0.58-0.95)
Nurses’ Predictions
In-hospital mortality 71/301 (24) 4.71
(2.94-7.56)
0.61
(0.49-0.75)
26/160 (16) 6.70
(3.30-13.62)
0.54
(0.37-0.80)
6-mo mortality 129/297 (43) 4.23
(2.71-6.61)
0.56
(0.47-0.68)
53/135 (39) 9.90
(4.12-23.80)
0.42
(0.30-0.59)
Unable to return to original residence at 6 mo 157/295 (53) 2.06
(1.57-2.69)
0.51
(0.40-0.65)
84/154 (55) 3.33
(2.18-5.11)
0.25
(0.16-0.40)
Unable to toilet independently at 6 mo 30/166 (18) 2.61
(1.74-3.90)
0.48
(0.30-0.78)
19/91 (21) 3.28
(1.91-5.66)
0.40
(0.20-0.78)
Unable to ambulate up 10 stairs at 6 mo 47/164 (29) 2.04
(1.48-2.82)
0.48
(0.31-0.74)
25/82 (30) 2.28
(1.56-3.34)
0.25
(0.10-0.64)
Abnormal cognition at 6 mo 62/165 (38) 1.50
(0.86-2.60)
0.88
(0.73-1.06)
30/94 (32) 2.44
(0.97-6.10)
0.82
(0.65-1.04)
Concordant Physicians’ and Nurse’ Predictionsc
In-hospital mortality 7/98 (7) 17.33
(4.80-62.62)
0.44
(0.19-1.04)
6-mo mortality 17/66 (26) 40.35
(5.73-284.28)
0.18
(0.06-0.50)
Unable to return to original residence at 6 mo 31/66 (47) 15.24
(3.94-58.94)
0.14
(0.05-0.34)
Unable to toilet independently at 6 mo 10/45 (22) 15.75
(4.04-61.46)
0.11
(0.02-0.68)
Unable to ambulate up 10 stairs at 6 mo 14/39 (36) 5.36
(2.13-13.4
0.17
(0.05-0.62)
Abnormal cognition at 6 mo 17/52 (33) 12.35
(1.61-94.63)
0.67
(0.47-0.95)
a

Confident predictions are defined as 4 (“considerably confident”) or 5 (“very confident”) on the Likert scale.

b

Represents the No. with adverse outcome/Total No. (%).

c

Represents when physicians and nurses were concordant in their predictions.