Table 3. Prevalence and Likelihood Ratios and for Physicians’ Predictions, Nurses’ Predictions, and Concordant Predictions.
| Outcome | All Predictions | Confident Predictionsa | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prevalence, No./Total (%)b | Likelihood Ratio (95% CI) | Prevalence, No./Total (%)b | Likelihood Ratio (95% CI) | |||
| Positive | Negative | Positive | Negative | |||
| Physicians’ Predictions | ||||||
| In-hospital mortality | 69/298 (23) | 4.81 (2.91-7.95) |
0.64 (0.52-0.78) |
19/158 (12) | 7.32 (3.11-17.20) |
0.61 (0.42-0.90) |
| 6-mo mortality | 128/296 (43) | 5.91 (3.74-9.32) |
0.41 (0.33-0.52) |
40/120 (33) | 33.00 (8.34-130.63) |
0.18 (0.09-0.35) |
| Unable to return to original residence at 6 mo | 156/294 (53) | 3.20 (2.21-4.62) |
0.49 (0.40-0.60) |
63/122 (52) | 5.62 (2.91-10.86) |
0.28 (0.18-0.43) |
| Unable to toilet independently at 6 mo | 30/165 (18) | 6.00 (3.18-11.30) |
0.51 (0.35-0.75) |
17/82 (21) | 22.94 (5.67-92.89) |
0.30 (0.15-0.64) |
| Unable to ambulate up 10 stairs at 6 mo | 47/163 (29) | 2.18 (1.53-3.11) |
0.51 (0.34-0.76) |
25/72 (35) | 3.76 (1.99-7.10) |
0.35 (0.18-0.66) |
| Abnormal cognition at 6 mo | 62/164 (38) | 2.36 (1.36-4.12) |
0.75 (0.61-0.92) |
32/90 (39) | 4.53 (1.54-13.29) |
0.74 (0.58-0.95) |
| Nurses’ Predictions | ||||||
| In-hospital mortality | 71/301 (24) | 4.71 (2.94-7.56) |
0.61 (0.49-0.75) |
26/160 (16) | 6.70 (3.30-13.62) |
0.54 (0.37-0.80) |
| 6-mo mortality | 129/297 (43) | 4.23 (2.71-6.61) |
0.56 (0.47-0.68) |
53/135 (39) | 9.90 (4.12-23.80) |
0.42 (0.30-0.59) |
| Unable to return to original residence at 6 mo | 157/295 (53) | 2.06 (1.57-2.69) |
0.51 (0.40-0.65) |
84/154 (55) | 3.33 (2.18-5.11) |
0.25 (0.16-0.40) |
| Unable to toilet independently at 6 mo | 30/166 (18) | 2.61 (1.74-3.90) |
0.48 (0.30-0.78) |
19/91 (21) | 3.28 (1.91-5.66) |
0.40 (0.20-0.78) |
| Unable to ambulate up 10 stairs at 6 mo | 47/164 (29) | 2.04 (1.48-2.82) |
0.48 (0.31-0.74) |
25/82 (30) | 2.28 (1.56-3.34) |
0.25 (0.10-0.64) |
| Abnormal cognition at 6 mo | 62/165 (38) | 1.50 (0.86-2.60) |
0.88 (0.73-1.06) |
30/94 (32) | 2.44 (0.97-6.10) |
0.82 (0.65-1.04) |
| Concordant Physicians’ and Nurse’ Predictionsc | ||||||
| In-hospital mortality | 7/98 (7) | 17.33 (4.80-62.62) |
0.44 (0.19-1.04) |
|||
| 6-mo mortality | 17/66 (26) | 40.35 (5.73-284.28) |
0.18 (0.06-0.50) |
|||
| Unable to return to original residence at 6 mo | 31/66 (47) | 15.24 (3.94-58.94) |
0.14 (0.05-0.34) |
|||
| Unable to toilet independently at 6 mo | 10/45 (22) | 15.75 (4.04-61.46) |
0.11 (0.02-0.68) |
|||
| Unable to ambulate up 10 stairs at 6 mo | 14/39 (36) | 5.36 (2.13-13.4 |
0.17 (0.05-0.62) |
|||
| Abnormal cognition at 6 mo | 17/52 (33) | 12.35 (1.61-94.63) |
0.67 (0.47-0.95) |
|||
a
Confident predictions are defined as 4 (“considerably confident”) or 5 (“very confident”) on the Likert scale.
b
Represents the No. with adverse outcome/Total No. (%).
c
Represents when physicians and nurses were concordant in their predictions.