Table 1. Cumulative Incidence and the Median Time to Detection of CIN1, CIN1+, CIN2, CIN2+, and CIN3+ After an ASC-US Cytology Screening Result by HPV Test and Follow-up Time for Women Aged 21 to 64 Years.
| Index HPV Status | No. | Follow-up Time, % (95% CI) | Time to Detection, Median (95% CI), d | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 y | 3 y | 5 y | |||
| CIN1 | |||||
| All | 2049 | 7.75 (7.38-8.11) | 9.80 (9.38-10.22) | 10.64 (10.20-11.09) | 77 (71-84) |
| HPV tested | 1806 | 8.77 (8.33-9.20) | 10.79 (10.30-11.27) | 11.63 (11.12-12.14) | 68 (63-71) |
| HPV positive | 1584 | 19.78 (18.83-20.73) | 23.14 (22.11-24.15) | 24.26 (23.19-25.32) | 61 (57-64) |
| HPV negative | 222 | 0.84 (0.66-1.03) | 1.96 (1.67-2.25) | 2.66 (2.30-3.02) | 582 (452-687) |
| Not HPV tested | 243 | 3.58 (3.00-4.15) | 5.80 (5.05-6.54) | 6.60 (5.78-7.41) | 298 (257-355) |
| CIN1+a | |||||
| All | 3126 | 11.27 (10.84-11.70) | 14.45 (13.96-14.94) | 15.91 (15.38-16.43) | 85 (80-94) |
| HPV tested | 2714 | 12.61 (12.10-13.11) | 15.66 (15.10-16.22) | 17.08 (16.48-17.67) | 71 (68-76) |
| HPV positive | 2430 | 28.02 (26.97-29.05) | 33.15 (32.04-34.24) | 35.10 (33.94-36.24) | 64 (62-68) |
| HPV negative | 284 | 0.89 (0.70-1.08) | 2.38 (2.06-2.70) | 3.44 (3.02-3.85) | 669 (551-777) |
| Not HVP tested | 412 | 5.76 (5.04-6.48) | 9.44 (8.52-10.36) | 11.14 (10.09-12.18) | 319 (282-358) |
| CIN2 | |||||
| All | 788 | 2.70 (2.48-2.92) | 3.65 (3.38-3.91) | 4.10 (3.81-4.38) | 134 (103-175) |
| HPV tested | 669 | 2.96 (2.70-3.22) | 3.88 (3.58-4.18) | 4.29 (3.97-4.62) | 91 (76-109) |
| HPV positive | 629 | 6.87 (6.28-7.46) | 8.72 (8.05-9.39) | 9.39 (8.68-10.10) | 78 (69-96) |
| HPV negative | 40 | 0.05 (0.01-0.10) | 0.28 (0.17-0.40) | 0.52 (0.34-0.69) | 986 (707-1287) |
| Not HVP tested | 119 | 1.63 (1.24-2.02) | 2.71 (2.19-3.22) | 3.37 (2.75-3.99) | 340 (281-464) |
| CIN2+a | |||||
| All | 1157 | 3.76 (3.50-4.02) | 5.21 (4.90-5.51) | 6.02 (5.67-6.36) | 155 (119-196) |
| HPV tested | 974 | 4.12 (3.81-4.42) | 5.50 (5.14-5.85) | 6.25 (5.86-6.64) | 97 (84-113) |
| HPV positive | 910 | 9.46 (8.78-10.14) | 12.17 (11.39-12.93) | 13.44 (12.61-14.27) | 84 (72-97) |
| HPV negative | 64 | 0.07 (0.02-0.13) | 0.44 (0.30-0.58) | 0.83 (0.62-1.05) | 931 (747-1218) |
| Not HPV tested | 183 | 2.32 (1.85-2.79) | 4.03 (3.41-4.65) | 5.13 (4.38-5.88) | 360 (314-471) |
| CIN3+ | |||||
| All | 452 | 1.38 (1.22-1.54) | 2.02 (1.83-2.22) | 2.43 (2.20-2.65) | 208 (119-251) |
| HPV tested | 375 | 1.49 (1.30-1.67) | 2.10 (1.88-2.32) | 2.49 (2.24-2.75) | 103 (82-183) |
| HPV positive | 351 | 3.48 (3.04-3.91) | 4.77 (4.25-5.28) | 5.51 (4.93-6.09) | 87 (76-126) |
| HPV negative | 24 | 0.03 (0.00-0.07) | 0.16 (0.08-0.25) | 0.32 (0.18-0.45) | 820 (516-1400) |
| Not HPV tested | 77 | 0.93 (0.63-1.23) | 1.73 1.32-2.15) | 2.15 (1.66-2.64) | 393 (279-523) |
Abbreviations: ASC-US, atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance; CIN, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia; HPV, human papillomavirus.
a
The number of cases of CIN1+ can be less than CIN1 plus CIN2+ because women who are diagnosed as having CIN1 and then CIN2+ more than 6 months later are counted twice; similarly, the number of cases of CIN2+ can be less than CIN2 plus CIN3+ because women who are diagnosed as having CIN2 and then CIN3+ more than 6 months later are counted twice. Subtraction of CIN2+ proportions from CIN1+ proportions gives the proportion with CIN1 and no subsequent higher-grade lesion.