Table 3.

Equations

A: Equation to calculate probability of progression to DM at 3 years
Equation	Probability (progression to DM) = 1 − S0exp(F(X))
Treatment	S0	F(X)
Lifestyle	0.824	0.048 × (BMI − 34) + 0.071 × (fasting glucose − 107) + 0.409 × (log(TG) − 5) + 0.266 × PA − 1.005 × adherence
Metformin	0.821	0.015 × (age − 51) + 0.271 × FH + 0.056 × (fasting glucose − 107) + 0.541 × (log(TG) − 5) + 0.463 × SM + 0.652 × polycystic − 0.199 × adherence
Placebo	0.825	−0.294 × FNP + 0.114 × FP + 0.449 × GDM + 0.018 × (BMI − 34) + 0.085 × (fasting glucose − 107) + 0.009 × (SBP − 124) + 0.246 × (log(TG) − 5) + 0.279 × CG + 0.217 × adherence

B: Equation to calculate probability of regression to NGR at 3 years
Formulas	Probability (progression to DM) = 1 − S0exp(F(X))
Treatment	S0	F(X)
Lifestyle	0.737	−0.011 × age − 0.052 × fasting glucose − 0.268 × log(TG) + 0.624 × adherence
Metformin	0.729	−0.017 × age − 0.494 × FNP − 0.260 × FP − 0.521 × GDM − 0.056 × fasting glucose − 0.008 × SBP − 0.311 × log(TG) + 0.263 × CG + 0.089 × adherence
Placebo	0.775	−0.009 × age − 0.085 × fasting glucose − 0.319 × log(TG) − 0.284 × adherence

CG, 1 if a subject is a college graduate, 0 otherwise; FH, 1 if a subject has family history of diabetes, 0 otherwise; FNP, 1 if a subject is female and has never been pregnant, 0 otherwise; FP, 1 if a subject is female and has been pregnant but no history of GDM, 0 otherwise; GDM, 1 if a subject is female and has had GDM, 0 otherwise; PA, 1 if physical activity >150 min/week, 0 otherwise; polycystic, 1 if a subject is female and has polycystic syndrome, 0 otherwise; S₀, 3-year survival probability for a participant with reference covariate pattern (continuous covariates equal the sample average and categorical covariates equal male or no); SM, 1 if a subject is a current smoker, 0 otherwise.