Table 5. Adjusted hazard ratios for all-cause, cardiovascular, and non-cardiovascular mortality according to weight change category.
| BMI change category | Adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI) | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Model A | Model B | Model C | |
| All-cause mortality | |||
| Stable | 1.0 (reference) | 1.0 (reference) | 1.0 (reference) |
| Sustained gain | 0.89 (0.84–0.95)* | 0.81 (0.76–0.86)* | 0.89 (0.83–0.95)* |
| Sustained loss | 1.32 (1.26–1.40)* | 1.38 (1.31–1.46)* | 1.25 (1.19–1.32)* |
| Fluctuation | 1.17 (1.12–1.23)* | 1.13 (1.08–1.19)* | 1.13 (1.08–1.19)* |
| Loss-gain(a) | 1.11 (1.05–1.18)* | 1.13 (1.07–1.19)* | 1.06 (1.00–1.13)§ |
| Gain-loss(a) | 1.22 (1.16–1.29)* | 1.14 (1.08–1.20)* | 1.20 (1.13–1.26)* |
| Cardiovascular mortality | |||
| Stable | 1.0 (reference) | 1.0 (reference) | 1.0 (reference) |
| Sustained gain | 0.84 (0.72–0.98)§ | 0.79 (0.68–0.92)¶ | 0.84 (0.72–0.98)§ |
| Sustained loss | 1.10 (0.97–1.25) | 1.14 (1.00–1.29) | 1.06 (0.93–1.20) |
| Fluctuation | 1.10 (0.99–1.23) | 1.08 (0.97–1.21) | 1.07 (0.96–1.20) |
| Loss-gain(a) | 1.10 (0.96–1.25) | 1.10 (0.97–1.26) | 1.06 (0.92–1.21) |
| Gain-loss(a) | 1.11 (0.98–1.26) | 1.06 (0.93–1.20) | 1.09 (0.96–1.24) |
| Non-cardiovascular mortality | |||
| Stable | 1.0 (reference) | 1.0 (reference) | 1.0 (reference) |
| Sustained gain | 0.90 (0.84–0.96)¶ | 0.81 (0.76–0.87)* | 0.90 (0.84–0.96)¶ |
| Sustained loss | 1.38 (1.30–1.46)* | 1.44 (1.36–1.53)* | 1.30 (1.22–1.38)* |
| Fluctuation | 1.18 (1.12–1.25)* | 1.15 (1.09–1.21)* | 1.15 (1.09–1.21)* |
| Loss-gain(a) | 1.12 (1.05–1.19)* | 1.13 (1.06–1.20)* | 1.06 (1.00–1.13) |
| Gain-loss(a) | 1.24 (1.17–1.32)* | 1.16 (1.09–1.23)* | 1.22 (1.15–1.29)* |
BMI, body mass index; Model A was adjusted for age and sex, baseline systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, serum glucose, total cholesterol, smoking status, alcohol consumption, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus. Model B was adjusted for variables outlined in Model A as well as for baseline BMI. Model C was adjusted for variables outlined in Model A as well as mean BMI. (a) indicates hazard ratios for ‘Loss-gain’ & ‘Gain-loss’ groups versus the ‘Stable’ group when weight change included five categories.
*P <0.001
¶P <0.01
§P <0.05.