Table 2.

Uncertainty traps, and methods for addressing them.

Uncertainty trap	Description	Example	Useful Methods
Ignoring uncertainty: put it in the too difficult box	Treating systems as deterministic when uncertainty actually compromises management	Saiga population estimates without confidence intervals have no power to detect change	Power analysis Value of Information (VoI) analysis
Acknowledging uncertainty: plough on	Recognising there is uncertainty but assuming/hoping that it doesn’t make a qualitative difference to management	Monitoring an uninformative life stage for seals because too expensive to do otherwise	Manage for learning (Adaptive Management) Virtual experiments (e.g. Management Strategy Evaluation, MSE)
Focussing on trivial uncertainties: Fiddle while Rome burns	Addressing uncertainties, but not the ones that make the most difference to management outcomes	Nest protection and head-starting turtles when the major issue for population viability is adult survival at sea	Model-based experimentation to highlight key uncertainties (VoI, MSE)
Believing models or rules of thumb: hubris	Management accounts for the uncertainties highlighted in models, e.g. through rules of thumb, but without challenging them	Red deer rule of thumb works because it cancels out two uncertainties; model-based experimentation for saiga management fails to account for reproductive collapse	Cycling between field-based experimentation and modelling. Scenario analysis to broaden horizons.
Sidestepping uncertainty: unclear objectives	If objectives are unclear, then assessing performance against them is difficult, so when uncertainties cause management inefficiency, they are missed	Invasive species management through culling in New Zealand without defined goals, international sustainability goals not SMART	Decision analysis, explicit consideration of trade-offs, rules of thumb, satisficing, stakeholder engagement