Table 2.
Associations between modifiable risk factors and GBD risk by sex
| Men | Women | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk Factors | No. Cases | HRa(95% CI) | No. Cases | HRa(95% CI) |
| BMI (kg/m2) | ||||
| < 25 | 1577 | 1.00 (ref.) | 2463 | 1.00 (ref.) |
| 25 - < 30 | 2612 | 1.23 (1.15–1.31) | 2444 | 1.33 (1.25–1.41) |
| ≥ 30 | 1076 | 1.55 (1.43–1.69) | 2213 | 1.74 (1.63–1.85) |
| P trend | < .0001 | < .0001 | ||
| Diabetes | ||||
| No | 4360 | 1.00 (ref.) | 5968 | 1.00 (ref.) |
| Yes | 905 | 1.44 (1.34–1.55) | 1152 | 1.46 (1.37–1.56) |
| Smoking (pack-years) | ||||
| Never | 1537 | 1.00 (ref.) | 4003 | 1.00 (ref.) |
| Past, < 20 | 2013 | 1.09 (1.01–1.16) | 1740 | 1.10 (1.04–1.16) |
| Past, ≥ 20 | 888 | 1.16 (1.07–1.27) | 418 | 1.30 (1.17–1.44) |
| Current, < 20 | 411 | 1.16 (1.04–1.30) | 582 | 1.17 (1.08–1.28) |
| Current, ≥ 20 | 416 | 1.22 (1.09–1.37) | 377 | 1.37 (1.23–1.53) |
| P trend | < .0001 | < .0001 | ||
| Alcohol intake (ethanol g/day) | ||||
| 0 | 2185 | 1.00 (ref.) | 4755 | 1.00 (ref.) |
| < 24 | 2256 | 0.92 (0.86–0.97) | 2083 | 0.86 (0.82–0.91) |
| 24- ≤ 48 | 501 | 0.85 (0.77–0.94) | 190 | 0.80 (0.69–0.93) |
| > 48 | 323 | 0.86 (0.76–0.97) | 92 | 0.92 (0.74–1.14) |
| P trend | 0.0001 | < .0001 | ||
| Vigorous Activity (hrs/day) | ||||
| 0 | 2063 | 1.00 (ref.) | 4567 | 1.00 (ref.) |
| > 0- ≤ 0.21 | 892 | 0.89 (0.82–0.96) | 1078 | 0.90 (0.84–0.97) |
| > 0.21- ≤ 0.46 | 831 | 0.86 (0.79–0.94) | 740 | 0.95 (0.87–1.03) |
| > 0.46 | 1479 | 0.80 (0.74–0.86) | 735 | 0.90 (0.83–0.98) |
| P trend | < .0001 | 0.0041 | ||
| Parityb | ||||
| 0 children | 771 | 1.00 (ref.) | ||
| 1 child | 746 | 1.09 (0.98–1.20) | ||
| 2–3 children | 2906 | 1.05 (0.97–1.14) | ||
| ≥ 4 children | 2899 | 1.14 (1.05–1.23) | ||
| P trend | 0.0036 | |||
| Age at First Live Birth (years)b | ||||
| No children | 771 | 1.00 (ref.) | ||
| ≤ 20 | 2505 | 1.10 (1.01–1.20) | ||
| 21–30 | 3613 | 1.07 (0.99–1.15) | ||
| > 30 | 433 | 1.05 (0.94–1.19) | ||
| P trend | 0.5200 | |||
| Ever Used Birth Controlb | ||||
| No | 4714 | 1.00 (ref.) | ||
| Yes | 2608 | 1.05 (0.99–1.11) | ||
| Menopausal Hormone Useb | ||||
| Never users | 3383 | 1.00 (ref.) | ||
| Past users | 1442 | 0.97 (0.91–1.04) | ||
| Current estrogen-only | 1113 | 1.09 (1.02–1.17) | ||
| Current estrogen + progesterone | 1099 | 1.06 (0.99–1.14) | ||
aHR stratified by set number (defined by matching factors: birth year, sex, ethnicity, study area, duration of Medicare enrollment—for cases identified from Medicare) and adjusted for smoking-pack years (never, past < 20, past ≥ 20, current < 20, current ≥ 20), alcohol intake (0, < 24, 24- ≤ 48, > 48 ethanol g/day), body mass index (< 25, 25- < 30, 30+ kg/m2), diabetes (no/yes), and education (≤ High School, some college, ≥college graduate). Menopausal hormone use limited to postmenopausal women
bFemales only