Table 1.

Results from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study: log‐hazard ratios for estimated current SBP (models BCF, LOCF and CA) or SBP intercept and SBP slope (models ORC, RRC and Joint), and C‐indices and Brier scores for 3‐year and 10‐year survival from 9 years on study (standard errors in brackets).

		Model
		BCF	LOCF	CA	ORC	RRC	Joint
Survival model
logHR	SBP	0.019 (0.001)	0.019 (0.001)	0.022 (0.001)	0.028 (0.002)	0.027 (0.002)	0.030 (0.002)
	SBP slope	NA	NA	NA	0.076 (0.040)	0.139 (0.041)	0.155 (0.048)
3‐year CVD risk prediction
C‐index		0.750 (0.021)	0.742 (0.022)	0.751 (0.022)	0.752 (0.022)	0.750 (0.022)	0.751 (0.022)
Change in C‐index		Reference	− 0.009 (0.009)	0.000 (0.006)	0.002 (0.006)	0.000 (0.007)	0.001 (0.007)
Brier score		0.026 (0.002)	0.026 (0.002)	0.026 (0.002)	0.026 (0.002)	0.026 (0.002)	0.026 (0.002)
10‐year CVD risk prediction
C‐index		0.728 (0.012)	0.723 (0.012)	0.732 (0.012)	0.733 (0.012)	0.732 (0.012)	0.733 (0.012)
Change in C‐index		Reference	− 0.005 (0.005)	0.004 (0.003)	0.006 (0.003)	0.004 (0.004)	0.005 (0.004)
Brier score		0.100 (0.004)	0.100 (0.004)	0.099 (0.004)	0.099 (0.004)	0.099 (0.004)	0.099 (0.004)

Changes in C‐indices are compared with the BCF model. SBP, systolic blood pressure; RRC, risk‐set regression calibration; BCF, baseline carried forward; LOCF, last observation carried forward; CA, cumulative average; ORC, ordinary regression calibration; CVD, cardiovascular disease.