Table 3.
Anticipated seroincidence (%) | Initial samples (n) | Anticipated number of events | Follow-up samples (n)* | Events detected (n) | Binomial exact (95% CI) |
Probability of observing 0 events | |
0–4 years | 0.2 | 2500 | 5 | 2000 | 4 | 0.0005 to 0.0051 | 0.0182 |
5–9 years | 0.4 | 1300 | 5.2 | 1040 | 4 | 0.0010 to 0.0098 | 0.0155 |
10–14 years | 0.8 | 800 | 6.4 | 640 | 5 | 0.0025 to 0.0181 | 0.0059 |
>14 years | 0.2 | 3900 | 7.8 | 3120 | 6 | 0.0007 to 0.0042 | 0.0019 |
Total | 8500 | 24.2 | 6800 | 19 |
Assumes age-stratified individual sampling; also accounts for detection of 1% chronic carriage rate in those aged ≥10 years.
*Assuming 5% migration and 15% refusal.