Fig. 10.

Empirical distributions of $r$ and $p$ of the GGM model derived from our bootstrap uncertainty method after fitting the GGM to an increasing length of the growth phase (10, 20, …, 80 days) of the daily incidence curve derived from the GRM model with parameters $r=0.2,p=0.8\text{,}a=1\text{,}\text{and}K=1000$. Importantly, using only 10 days of data, it is not possible to reliably estimate the deceleration of growth parameter, $p$, because its confidence interval ranges widely from 0.5 to 1.0. Indeed, it is not possible to discriminate between sub-exponential and exponential-growth dynamics based on data of only the first 10 days. However, as more data of the early growth phase is employed to estimate parameters of the GGM, the uncertainty in parameter estimates is not only reduced, but the parameter estimates are better constrained around their true values.