Fig. 12.

Schematic diagram shows the uncertainty around the model fit (blue lines; calibration period) given by $f(t,{\hat{\Theta }}_1),f(t,{\hat{\Theta }}_2),\dots ,f(t,{\hat{\Theta }}_S)$ and the corresponding uncertainty in the forecast for a time horizon of $h$ time units (gray lines; forecasting period) given by $f(t+h,{\hat{\Theta }}_1),f(t+h,{\hat{\Theta }}_2),\dots ,f(t+h,{\hat{\Theta }}_S)$. The blue circles denote the time series data. The vertical dashed line separates the calibration and forecasting periods.