Fig. 15.

10-day ahead forecasts provided by the generalized-growth model (GGM) when the model is fitted to an increasing amount of epidemic data: (A) 20, (B) 25, (C) 30, and (D) 35 epidemic days. The cyan curves correspond to the uncertainty during the model calibration period while the gray curves correspond to the ensemble of realizations for the model forecast. The mean (solid red line) and 95% CIs (dashed red lines) of the model fit are also shown. The vertical line separates the calibration and forecasting periods.