Fig. 19.

Top panels display the empirical distributions of the growth rate $r$, the deceleration of growth parameter $p$ and the effective reproduction number $R_{eff}$ based on fitting the GGM to the first 20 days of the 1918 influenza pandemic in San Francisco. We assumed an exponential distribution for the generation interval of influenza with a mean of 4 days and variance of 16. The bottom panel shows the fit of the GGM to the first 20 days of the 1918 influenza pandemic in San Francisco. Circles correspond to the data while the solid red line corresponds to the best fit obtained using the generalized-growth model (GGM). The blue lines correspond to the uncertainty around the model fit. We estimated the deceleration of growth parameter at 0.95 (95%CI: 0.95, 1.0), an epidemic growth profile with uncertainty bounds that includes exponential growth dynamics (i.e., p = 1) during the early growth trajectory of the pandemic in Madrid.