Table 6. ILI prediction results for 31 geolocations estimated using MAPE for nowcasting (this week) and forecasting (one and two weeks).
Locations with min and max MAPE scores are underlined.
| This Week | One Week | Two Weeks | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILI | SM | ILI + SM | ILI | SM | ILI + SM | ILI | SM | ILI + SM | |
| L14 | 16.81 | 15.10 | 18.18 | 20.90 | 23.94 | 11.55 | 27.46 | 28.29 | 13.18 |
| i2 | 10.88 | 13.44 | 11.65 | 12.39 | 13.89 | 12.01 | 16.24 | 14.12 | 12.43 |
| L3 | 12.96 | 15.53 | 17.25 | 18.15 | 39.67 | 12.94 | 15.89 | 35.76 | 26.80 |
| L27 | 16.75 | 16.51 | 9.97 | 21.59 | 22.42 | 12.57 | 25.47 | 26.52 | 14.12 |
| L20 | 20.13 | 19.79 | 17.09 | 29.51 | 23.78 | 27.39 | 26.68 | 24.31 | 17.57 |
| i25 | 30.92 | 25.12 | 19.34 | 31.88 | 22.35 | 27.48 | 34.77 | 26.60 | 34.70 |
| L28 | 14.36 | 12.68 | 11.53 | 18.71 | 27.42 | 14.62 | 20.84 | 29.87 | 13.45 |
| L11 | 12.30 | 18.00 | 10.92 | 16.48 | 28.22 | 16.91 | 22.27 | 21.82 | 22.23 |
| L25 | 11.43 | 21.08 | 6.95 | 16.95 | 30.92 | 8.89 | 16.39 | 29.59 | 12.55 |
| L10 | 12.34 | 18.22 | 17.51 | 14.37 | 18.05 | 18.48 | 18.80 | 27.00 | 16.76 |
| L4 | 12.34 | 18.66 | 10.25 | 17.38 | 22.39 | 17.88 | 17.83 | 20.84 | 19.20 |
| L29 | 13.87 | 19.83 | 12.53 | 16.13 | 19.64 | 14.24 | 21.39 | 24.57 | 21.02 |
| L0 | 10.37 | 14.81 | 9.14 | 11.74 | 13.84 | 10.27 | 13.58 | 17.89 | 13.65 |
| L23 | 14.67 | 26.99 | 11.86 | 19.32 | 35.27 | 17.73 | 23.86 | 30.57 | 22.67 |
| L12 | 13.96 | 33.73 | 15.29 | 26.28 | 45.55 | 30.91 | 40.91 | 72.21 | 42.30 |
| L30 | 17.50 | 26.37 | 16.67 | 25.96 | 32.82 | 19.66 | 25.14 | 34.83 | 29.43 |
| L33 | 12.30 | 17.38 | 10.11 | 19.34 | 21.05 | 12.80 | 18.93 | 18.90 | 15.74 |
| L15 | 21.32 | 37.07 | 18.22 | 25.91 | 41.65 | 33.94 | 39.65 | 69.70 | 38.24 |
| L13 | 15.57 | 23.49 | 14.71 | 20.10 | 32.74 | 23.18 | 21.90 | 36.80 | 26.06 |
| L31 | 14.17 | 35.02 | 12.48 | 20.84 | 40.45 | 21.08 | 21.39 | 34.41 | 25.80 |
| i3 | 19.67 | 24.88 | 22.49 | 24.34 | 26.31 | 25.57 | 19.61 | 26.24 | 28.90 |
| L32 | 16.25 | 38.89 | 20.99 | 23.80 | 39.49 | 27.12 | 29.24 | 63.26 | 36.96 |
| L22 | 16.36 | 34.31 | 13.33 | 25.30 | 34.82 | 27.52 | 31.78 | 44.60 | 37.27 |
| L21 | 17.50 | 37.72 | 16.46 | 32.36 | 30.88 | 29.58 | 34.16 | 46.03 | 38.12 |
| i27 | 16.16 | 26.30 | 17.97 | 19.03 | 24.76 | 19.11 | 21.96 | 27.60 | 22.09 |
| L34 | 15.74 | 17.38 | 9.45 | 20.99 | 21.37 | 13.97 | 26.00 | 21.76 | 17.22 |
| L37 | 17.63 | 21.67 | 16.91 | 22.82 | 24.61 | 18.93 | 26.28 | 23.20 | 21.69 |
| L16 | 15.08 | 21.89 | 13.42 | 16.89 | 20.46 | 16.00 | 19.14 | 23.54 | 18.39 |
| i20 | 17.08 | 41.50 | 28.70 | 24.68 | 42.83 | 29.66 | 25.63 | 45.92 | 39.26 |
| L19 | 15.99 | 35.74 | 19.52 | 23.39 | 35.40 | 22.09 | 25.66 | 36.79 | 28.04 |
| i17 | 29.39 | 56.58 | 31.59 | 46.21 | 59.07 | 47.09 | 53.29 | 63.47 | 55.70 |
| Mean | 16.19 | 25.34 | 15.56 | 22.06 | 29.55 | 20.68 | 25.23 | 33.77 | 25.21 |