Table 3.
Eve-of-vote poll and Twitter stance predictions with adjustments for the age demography
| 18–24 | 25–49 | 50–64 | 65+ | Prediction | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| %Leave | %Leave | %Leave | %Leave | %Leave | |||||
| 1. Poll results | 0.114 | 20 | 0.431 | 45 | 0.247 | 56 | 0.208 | 60 | 48.6 |
| 2. Projection to Twitter demo | 0.261 | 20 | 0.526 | 45 | 0.146 | 56 | 0.067 | 63 | 41.3 |
| 3. Twitter actual | 0.261 | 25 | 0.526 | 56 | 0.146 | 70 | 0.067 | 78 | 51.3 |
| 4. Poll adjusted | 0.114 | 25 | 0.431 | 56 | 0.247 | 70 | 0.208 | 78 | 60.4 |
| 5. Discrepancy between projection to Twitter demographics and Twitter actual (rows 2 and 3) | 10.0% | ||||||||