Table 3.

Health and economic impact of the aPS intervention (universal ART initiation)^§

Percent of population receiving APS	12.5%
Health impacts (total population)
HIV infections averted	3.7% (1.9–5.6)
HIV-related deaths averted	2.6% (1.6–3.6%)
DALYs averted	1.4% (0.1–2.0)
Health impacts (among aPS partners only)
HIV infections averted	2.6% (−1.3–6.0%)
HIV-related deaths averted	13.7% (10.5–16.3%)
DALYs averted	8.9% (6.7–10.9%)
5-year incremental aPS intervention costs (per 500,000 adults)
Program scenario (millions)	3.5 (3.2–3.8)
Task-shifting scenario (millions)	2.5 (2.2–2.8)
Cost-effectiveness
ICER program scenario ($/DALY averted)	$1,094 ($823–1,619)
Percent of program ICERs under Kenya’s per capita GDP out of 200 simulations	80%
ICER task shifting scenario ($/DALY averted)	$833 ($628–1,224)
Percent of task-shifting ICERs under Kenya’s per capita GDP out of 200 simulations	93%

^§Values in parentheses represent 90% model variability across 200 simulations (range). Strategies under the threshold of Kenya’s GDP per capita ($1,368) are considered very cost-effective.

^¥Costs and DALYs are discounted at 3% annually. Costs are in 2014 USD.