Table 1.
Summary Statistics
| Estimation Sample | Cost Model Sample | Simulation Sample | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
||||||
| Full sample |
Incumbent Employees |
New Employees | ||||
|
|
||||||
| Male | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.67 | 0.49 | 0.6 | |
| New | 0.08 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | |
| Age: | ||||||
| mean | 41.16 | 41.61 | 35.95 | 34.98 | 41.5 | |
| 1st Pcntl | 21 | 22 | 20 | 1 | 22 | |
| 25th Pcntl | 32 | 32 | 26 | 17 | 32 | |
| 50th Pcntl | 45 | 42 | 34 | 38 | 42 | |
| 75th Pcntl | 50 | 50 | 46 | 51 | 50 | |
| 99th Pcntl | 62 | 62 | 61 | 63 | 62 | |
| Total costs: | ||||||
| mean | $3,875.44 | $3,998.5 | $2,422.19 | $3,631.99 | $3,792.1 | |
| 1st Pcntl | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| 5th Pcntl | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| 25th Pcntl | $73 | $90 | $0 | $174.89 | $85 | |
| 50th Pcntl | $857 | $910 | $368 | $802.84 | $900 | |
| 75th Pcntl | $3,016 | $3,136 | $1,811 | $2,885.19 | $3,109 | |
| 95th Pcntl | $15,789 | $16,167 | $9,019 | $13,906.53 | $15,097 | |
| 99th Pcntl | $52,385 | $53,019 | $28,672 | $43,720.05 | $47,342 | |
| Expected costs: | ||||||
| mean | $3,959.34 | $4,028.07 | $3,147.69 | n.a. | $3,804.45 | |
| 1st Pcntl | $317.64 | $332.65 | $283.52 | n.a. | $29.42 | |
| 5th Pcntl | $479.48 | $496.89 | $354.11 | n.a. | $65.83 | |
| 25th Pcntl | $1,073.26 | $1,111.25 | $757.62 | n.a. | $780.63 | |
| 50th Pcntl | $2,071.85 | $2,132.63 | $1,461.67 | n.a. | $1,792.84 | |
| 75th Pcntl | $4,119.02 | $4,207.45 | $3,041.46 | n.a. | $3,932.96 | |
| 95th Pcntl | $12,201.57 | $12,368.52 | $9711.7 | n.a. | $12,600.92 | |
| 99th Pcntl | $30,161.83 | $30,407.75 | $22,785.8 | n.a. | $33,447.02 | |
| Total cost risk scores: | ||||||
| mean | 0.91 | 0.93 | 0.71 | 0.89 | 0.92 | |
| 1st Pcntl | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.1 | 0.15 | |
| 5th Pcntl | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.18 | |
| 25th Pcntl | 0.31 | 0.33 | 0.23 | 0.27 | 0.32 | |
| 50th Pcntl | 0.53 | 0.55 | 0.38 | 0.51 | 0.54 | |
| 75th Pcntl | 0.98 | 1 | 0.77 | 0.99 | 1.01 | |
| 95th Pcntl | 2.65 | 2.73 | 2.13 | 2.59 | 2.74 | |
| 99th Pcntl | 6.19 | 6.28 | 4.5 | 5.87 | 6.18 | |
|
| ||||||
| N | 9,133 | 8,420 | 713 | 12,177,930 | 25,398 | |
Notes: Summary statistics for Estimation Sample, Cost Model Sample, and Simulation Sample. All samples come from Truven Marketscan dataset from choice years 2006–08. Estimation and Simulation Samples are from one large firm in Marketscan dataset where employees choose between 2 PPO plans. Samples are restricted to single-coverage employees enrolled for all 365 days of the year prior to and year of plan choice to ensure that costs can be predicted using full set of information. Estimation sample is restricted to employees from choice year 2007. Cost model sample is formed by first taking all individuals in Marketscan during at least 300 days of both 2006–2007. Expected costs calculated by finding mean of the estimated cost distribution. Expected costs are not shown for the cost model sample because the purpose of the cost model sample is to generate the expected cost distributions for the other samples.