Table 3. Number of cases and economic burden of cattle losses due to VBR estimated by different methods for 2014 in southern Peru.
| Based on confirmed outbreaks | Based on suspected outbreaks | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Method | Number of cases (95% CI) |
Economic loss in US$ (95% CI) | Number of cases (95% CI) |
Economic loss in US$ (95% CI) |
| Official reports | 113 | 26,974 | 169 | 26,974 |
| MFuncorrected | 341 (275–632) | 81,524 (25,532–214,137) | 468 (382–876) | 112,934 (36,147–298,471) |
| MFcorrected |
505 (459–1165) | 121,797 (47,009–408,013) | 714 (680–1,629) | 171,992 (66,973–573,879) |
| V | - | - | 596 (354–1,042) | 143,691 (40,742–371,897) |
| Vcorrected | - | - | 522 (340–966) | 125,813 (37,896–343,573) |
The ‘MFuncorrected’ method estimated the actual number of cases using the average level of under-reporting across the region. The ‘MFcorrected’ estimated cases by correcting the under-reporting probability of each outbreak by the distance of that farm to the nearest reporting office. The ‘V’ method estimated cases multiplying the number of cattle by the percentage of cattle at risk and showing clinical signs of VBR as: V x number of cases per outbreak = 29389 × 0.76 × 0.18 × 0.14 × 1.06, with V corrected estimating the number of cases based on district or province-level estimations.